The NRFI bets today for Monday, June 3, are somewhat slim pickings, especially if you’re not trying to mess with super-juiced odds. But there looks to be one no run first inning pick that can be played, and I’m going to break it down for you.
But if you missed out on some weekend action, we got ABSOLUTELY PAID on Saturday and Sunday — cashing a no-sweat White Sox-Brewers NRFI and getting the BAG with a +560 Alec Burleson home run bet. I gave both of those picks out on Twitter — make sure you’re following me there (@nd_joyce) so you don’t miss out on those weekend goodies. Now, let’s get to my best NRFI bet for today.
If you’re hungry for more, check out our NRFI & YRFI betting.
NRFI & YRFI Bets Today: Best No & Yes Run First Inning Picks
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals | YRFI & NRFI Bets Today
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Traditional measures when you look at this Mets-Nationals game wouldn’t generally lead you to a NRFI — 8.5 run total, getting hot in D.C., a couple of pitchers not many people know the names of. But for all of those reasons, this is one where I think the books MIGHT HAVE priced this one a bit wrong, and I’m going to try to take advantage of a nice -115 value line on this no run first inning.
Nationals starter MacKenzie Gore has been low-key REALLY GOOD.
Like, we’re talking borderline ace-level good.
The fella is rocking a nearly 30% strikeout rate on the season through his 58.2 innings, which ranks him in the 85th percentile.
Not only is he missing bats, but he’s cut his walk rate by 3 percentage points, which is a huge improvement from 2023.
All of those improvements have combined to help him begin the season 10-1 on NRFIs, which is an incredible record.
The Mets are basically a league-average offense against left-handed pitching this season, but with the virtual ace on the mound in Gore, I’m extremely comfortable with him getting us the first three outs we need for the NRFI.
Bringing us home in the bottom half of the first will be Mets starter Tylor Megill, who has only thrown 16 innings this season but did throw 126.1 innings last year.
In his 16 innings in 2024, he’s piled up 20 strikeouts, and his Baseball Savant Statcast data page is looking pretty strong — but do take into consideration it is a small sample.
The fastball velo looks great, as he’s sitting consistently right at 96, and the whiff rate and strikeout rate have been good as well — actually, they’ve been great.
Washington is a bottom-8 team in wRC+ against right-handed pitching this season and strikes out right at 22% of the time, so on paper, this should be a pretty good matchup for Megill.
With the books hanging the -115 line here for the NRFI bet today, and a couple of pitchers that have shown the ability to pile up strikeouts against offenses that are prone to not scoring in the first, this feels like the best bet on the board.
YRFI & NRFI Bets Today: Mets-Nationals NRFI (-115 at Fanatics)
