The MLB has an action-packed slate on tap this evening. Action gets underway in the early afternoon with the Chicago Cubs hosting the Los Angeles Angels, and then we’ve got every team in action at 6:30 p.m. ET and later. Let’s dive into our MLB +EV betting guide to find sharp plays on your own!
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 5
MLB Expert Picks & Predictions for Friday, July 5
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@nd_joyce – Player Prop Juan Soto O/U 1.5 H/R/RBI: The books f-ed up. Plain and simple. Juan Soto’s hits, runs and RBIs line at 1.5 tonight being priced at -115 is a mistake, and we have to punish them for it.
There’s no reason for one of the best hitters in the world, with arguably the best hitter in the world hitting behind him, to get this line against a pitcher like Tanner Houck.
The Boston RHP is one of baseball’s leading regression candidates. He is currently pitching to the raw numbers of a 2.67 ERA, .221 AVG and .297 SLG%.
However, when we take a look under the hood, the expected stats tell a different story. Houck’s expected ERA is a FULL RUN higher than his actual ERA at 3.68. And the expected slugging? Well, that’s .396 as opposed to his .297, which is fourth-highest gap among all pitchers with at least 150 batters faced.
Soto is going to see mostly three pitches from Houck tonight — sliders, splitters and sinkers. Here’s how Soto stacks up against those pitches this season:
Sinker: .407 AVG, .815 SLG%, 61.4% HHR
Splitter: .300 AVG, .300 SLG%, 57.1% HHR
Slider: .209 AVG, .372 SLG%, 50% HHR
As we can see, Soto hits every pitch hard, which should come as no surprise considering his hard-hit rate basically breaks the Statcast chart, as he’s in the 99th percentile.
But, with him likely getting four at-bats, even if he walks twice, we get the opportunity for Aaron Judge to drive him, and just scoring two runs would cash this bet.
Getting a superstar like Soto at a -115 price on a H/R/RBI line with so many ways to cash is a gift from the betting gods, so take me to church.
MLB Expert Pick Today: Juan Soto Over 1.5 H/R/RBI -105 at ESPNBET
+135 at BetMGM today, which is both off-market (everywhere else is in the +120 to +130 range) and an absolute steal for this matchup. Pederson, a LHB, takes on RHP Randy Vasquez, who is allowing LHBs to slash .449/.500/.674.
Yes, that means LHBs are leaving the plate with a hit against Vasquez barely under half the time. They are taking a base exactly half the time, too. While walks don’t count for total base bets, Vasquez’s 5.6% walk rate is in the 82nd percentile, which helps us out here.
I could clown Vasquez all day here, as his 6.65 xERA (1st percentile) and .334 xBA (1st) suggest he is probably the worst starting pitcher in the MLB right now. The 25-year-old could figure it out, but I just don’t see that happening anytime soon, and especially not in tonight’s matchup versus the Arizona Diamondbacks.
We’re targeting Pederson largely because he is a lefty. His .294/.386/.521 slash line versus RHPs provides some for that choice as well. That said, Pederson’s expected stats are also quite impressive this season, as he boasts a .260 xBA (60th) and .451 xSLG (70th) so far. It’s a tough ballpark since we’re in San Diego for this one, but I have faith in the veteran slugger.
MLB Expert Pick & Prediction Today: Joc Pederson Over 1.5 Total Bases +135 at BetMGM
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