Marlins Pitching Rotation Breakdown: Braxton Garrett Up After Edward Cabrera Injured

The Miami Marlins have had a rocky start to the 2024 season. After a brutal 0-9 start, the Marlins now sit at 10-28, which makes them the second-worst team in the National League, ahead of only the Colorado Rockies. Pitching injuries have been a big part of the issue, and the Marlins got some mixed news on Wednesday on that front — LHP Braxton Garrett has cleared the injured list, but an injury to RHP Edward Cabrera means it’s not much of a gain. Let’s get into our Marlins pitching rotation breakdown after the Garrett and Cabrera news with an eye to the best betting angles for them moving forward.

Marlins Pitching Rotation Breakdown After Edward Cabrera Injury

But it’s an open question as to whether Garrett’s return offsets Cabrera’s injury. Cabrera owns a brutal 7.17 ERA through 21.1 innings pitched, but his 4.28 xERA suggest he has been getting unlucky. He posted a steadier 4.24 ERA and 3.77 xERA last season.

Cabrera s A.J. Puk (9.22 ERA) and Jesus Luzardo (6.58 ERA) on the IL-15. While both pitchers are off to slow starts this season, their xERAs are slightly lower, and their ERAs last season (3.97 and 3.58, respectively) were much better. Puk could return soon, but he’s still going through rehab starts and is expected to be used as a bullpen arm upon his return. Luzardo has already made a rehab start as well and could make his return soon.

The few healthy starters on Miami’s rosters are struggling. Ryan Weathers (4.54 ERA) is on the better side, but his xERA is a touch higher. Trevor Rogers (6.15 ERA) has a worse ERA but a comparable xERA. Sixto Sanchez (7.50 ERA) has the worst ERA of the three full-time guys but also sports the best xERA at 4.40. Rookie and 40-man roster member Max Meyer (2.12 ERA) has flashed some serious potential and sports a 3.86 xERA but isn’t expected to see action until the second half of the season.

Both Sandy Alcantara and Eury Perez are out for the full 2024 season due to Tommy John surgery.

How to Bet Miami Moving Forward | Edward Cabrera Injury

With the Marlins shipping off Luis Arraez to the San Diego Padres, it’s clear that the Marlins are going to be sellers at the deadline. Luzardo has already come up in trade talks, but the Marlins likely want him to improve his on-field numbers to increase their leverage.

It certainly doesn’t make sense to back Miami on any futures markets given their front office’s recent maneuvering. As of publication, Miami’s win total was trading at 59.5, which was well below their projected win total at FanGraphs of 68, which likely assumes they keep their roster intact.

Although Miami does have some quality arms in the starting rotation, they haven’t been performing well, and the bullpen is awful, as the unit’s sixth-worst 4.80 ERA would suggest. That number could be even worse because they sport a third-worse 1.43 WHIP.

Still, bettors should be able to buy low on Miami in the right matchups, especially after the Arraez deal. Miami’s collective team .305 xwOBA, while well below their actual .280 wOBA, suggests this team has slightly more life than the market thinks.

As the season moves forward, keep an eye on Miami’s starting rotation. In games that Braxton Garrett, Sixto Sanchez and Jesus Luzardo start, they could have value on the first-five run or moneyline markets — assuming, of course, that the front office doesn’t choose to ship off more bats. The Marlins could also have some serious value once prospect Max Meyer gets called back up.