If you’re looking for the best home run bet today, there’s one slugger who stands out from the rest: Pete Alonso. When it comes to betting on home run props, the goal is simple — identify where the odds offered by sportsbooks underrate the true chance of a home run happening. That’s called positive expected value (+EV), and it’s how long-term bettors profit from the markets. Based on matchup data, power metrics, and sportsbook lines, Alonso is the best HR pick today, and the numbers back it up.
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Best MLB Home Run Pick Today: Pete Alonso
Alonso has been one of the most prolific home run hitters in baseball since his debut. He smashed 53 homers as a rookie, and he’s already topped 40 two other times in his career. Through just a few weeks of the 2025 season, he’s slugged six home runs and leads the National League in both slugging (.718) and OPS (1.171).
If you want a dependable HR pick today, Alonso’s elite power ceiling and consistency make him a top-tier target.
Alonso isn’t just hot — he’s facing a pitcher he’s absolutely owned in the past: Aaron Nola.
- Alonso has six career home runs off Nola, tied for the most he’s hit against any pitcher.
- He’s posted a 1.117 OPS in their previous matchups.
- Nola is struggling this year, with a 6.65 ERA and four home runs allowed through four starts.
In short: Alonso dominates this matchup historically, and Nola is not in top form. That’s the ideal recipe for a home run bet.
Yes, Citi Field is known as a pitcher-friendly park, but that matters far less when you’re talking about a slugger with Alonso’s raw strength. He’s already shown he can hit bombs at home, and with Nola on the mound, he has every opportunity to do it again today.
If you’re weighing park factor too heavily in your home run pick, you’re probably missing out on value because Alonso can clear fences anywhere.
Alonso is listed at +450 to hit a home run at many sportsbooks. That implies a probability of just 18%. But given his historical HR rate, current form and Nola’s struggles, Alonso’s true HR chance is likely closer to 25%.
Best Home Run Pick Today: Pete Alonso (+350, ESPN BET)
