As we wait for the NBA Finals to kick off, we turn to the ballpark for a same-game parlay — this time rolling with some Sunday Night Baseball action in Philadelphia. Let’s get to it with a Parlay Builder.
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MLB Same Game Parlay: Caesars Parlay With Paul Goldschmidt & More
As always, we are going with value compared to the market, and OddsShopper, this is a long-term profitable parlay for Cardinals-Phillies.
Leg #1: Matt Carpenter Under 0.5 RBIs
This matchup the Cardinals are facing is not exactly an unders paradise. After all, Taijuan Walker is now on a multi-year run of struggling to keep runners off the basepaths.
But the Cardinals themselves have not been a bastion of strong offensive performance.
This team is seventh worst in MLB in isolated power and eighth worst in weighted on-base average, and if you’re more interested in basic metrics, St. Louis is bottom 5 in runs per game, hits and total bases.
What about Carpenter himself, you may ask. Well, the fact is that, if the Cardinals don’t get players on base in front of him, his chances of an RBI become limited to home runs — of which he has one this year. Carpenter is also pretty much exclusively platooning against right-handed pitchers, so once Walker exits, he is a pinch-hit risk.
In kind, the under on Carpenter’s RBIs is juiced heavily to -189 — and it’s not enough. OddsShopper has the True Odds all the way up to -205, so anything lower than that is a +EV play.
Thanks to a 67% expected win rate on Carpenter under 0.5 RBIs, the value on this bet is positive by 2.7%. It’s not a ton, but it is a good start to a parlay and keeps our overall win rate high.
Leg #2: Paul Goldschmidt Under 1.5 Total Bases
Sticking with the Cardinals theme, we have the guy who is the current poster boy for a team that is high in name value and low in performance. Goldschmidt is only a couple years removed from winning National League MVP — but that guy seems eons in the past.
He is 239 plate appearances into his 2024 season, and yet Goldschmidt has a mere 15 extra-base hits and is slugging only .358 — the lowest of his career by about 90 points. His .662 OPS is his worst by 146 points, and with an OPS+ of 90 (indicating 10 points below league average), this is the first time in his career Goldschmidt has been a worse offensive contributor than the standard MLB hitter.
Seventy-six total bases in 54 games put Goldschmidt at 1.41 per game, which is obviously below the 1.5 threshold. He also has two-plus bases in just 17 games this season (31.5%), and his splits are worse in righty-righty matchups, which he faces today (though Walker is a mediocre pitcher at the moment).
Like with Carpenter, Goldschmidt’s under is seeing a bit of juice, but not nearly as much at -139. OddsShopper has these True Odds at -148 with the expected win rate on the under at 60%, so this play is also 2.7% +EV.
Pair it with the Carpenter under, and we have a +163 Cardinals-Phillies parlay with a 40% chance of winning and a positive expected value of 5.07% on BetMGM, and that is barely positive at 0.26%.
MLB Parlay Today: +163 at Caesars Sportsbook
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