The WNBA slate offers five different games to choose from, each one presenting a different case for some value. We want to identify the top play across each slate while reminding you to follow Eytan on Discord for a full ticket — he posted four games this morning. There are a bunch of smaller spreads with those leaning towards home favorites, plus the larger line in Seattle where the Storm opened at +7 and moved to +12 in the morning. While a couple of games featuring road dogs with shorter odds do look appealing, it is the battle in the Atlanta that has the best value on the board.
WNBA Best Bet of the Day: Dream Can Control the Pace
The Atlanta Dream are catching 7.5 points at home, a number they have covered in each of their contests. This was actually brought up earlier in the OddsShopper Discord and continues to be the top play. The Liberty come off a brutal loss where they were outscored by 13 points in the fourth quarter by Chicago. There is some expectation that they will just bounce back from that loss, but Atlanta will not make this easy — especially on the defensive end. The Dream would rather play a lower-scoring game but did end up losing by just 5 last game, a 92-87 shootout with the Aces. The Dream should play a little tighter on that side at home, reverting back to a squad that gives up just 81 points per game on average. They come in with a top 3 to 4 offense, led by Cheyenne Parker and Rhyne Howard. Slowing down Breanna Stewart is easier said than done, but the Dream should be able to control some pacing while not settling for bad baskets, as they have survived with a positive point differential despite having a 2-3 record.
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Stewart is going to need some help just to win this game, let alone cover a 7.5-point spread. There is a reason why oddsmakers have been off with Atlanta covering the 7.5-point range, mainly because of how tough it is to pull away on their home court. The Liberty will try to shake off the awful feeling of watching a fourth quarter get away from them, but holding a lead in Atlanta will be equally as difficult as it was against the Sky. Stewart averages nearly double the points per game as her next teammate, so getting a little boost from Sabrina Ionescu (12 points per game) and Courtney Vandersloot (10.5 points per game) will be vital if New York stands to compete.
This is not the easiest spot for New York to bounce back and pound a team, especially as the Dream have held their own at home with larger spreads.
