It’s time to continue our best WNBA predictions today series by focusing on a Kahleah Copper prop among other plays. Nevertheless, let’s get right to it.
It was bound to happen some time: Our best WNBA predictions today series had its first losing day of the season last time out, going 1-3 with brutal hook losses on our A’ja Wilson and Arike Ogunbowale points props on Tuesday. We’re not sweating it at a cool 17-11 on the season so far; but let’s look to bounce back and get hot again with some action on today’s three-game WNBA slate.
The slate kicks off at 7pm Eastern with two games, one being a match-up of the Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx, two elite teams led by early MVP candidates in Alyssa Thomas and Napheesa Collier. At the same time, the Chicago Sky visit New York hoping to somehow pull off a repeat of their preseason upset of the Liberty now that the game actually counts. Our nightcap brings us to Phoenix, where the winless Washington Mystics take on the Mercury, who have been exceeding expectations left and right in the early season, undefeated against the spread and coming off a massive upset win against the Las Vegas Aces.
I’ve got a best bet angle for each of these games, let’s dig in.
Best WNBA Predictions Today (May 23)
Minnesota Lynx @ Connecticut Sun
I’ve been riding high on the Lynx train since before the season started, when I gave out their season win totals over at the insultingly low line of 16.5 wins. Minnesota has continued to be underrated by the books thus far in the season; they’re 2-0 having come into both of their games (both against the Seattle Storm) as underdogs.
The Lynx come into Mohegan Sun as dogs once again, the Sun having opened as 7.5 point favorites, and I feel that once again they’v been underestimated. There are few, if any, teams in the WNBA that I think should be favored by 7 points against the Lynx with how they’ve looked so far, even on the road.
I particularly like the way the Lynx match-up with the Sun here. Minnesota head coach Cheryl Reeve has made high offensive pace and three-point shooting points of emphasis heading into the season, and this has born out in the stats (albeit small sample size).
The Lynx lead the league in pace and are fourth in both three-point attempts and three-point field goal percentage. The Sun are 10th in three-point percentage and dead-last in pace. I don’t think the Sun have the offensive firepower to keep up with the Lynx’s scoring, nor the perimeter defensive personnel to slow down the Lynx three-point shooting barrage. I’m taking the points with Minnesota and hitting the moneyline, too.
Best WNBA Predictions Today: Minnesota Lynx +6.5 and ML
Chicago Sky @ New York Liberty
As I said before, the Sky upset the Liberty in preseason and ran several scoring-victory-laps around them too, hanging 101 points on New York. Obviously, very different context around this game this time in the regular season, with the game, you know, actually mattering and stuff this time. I’m tempted by a revenge angle here with the Liberty coming to lay the smack down on this young upstart team, but with New York 1-3 against the spread, and the spread looming large at 16.5, I’m gun-shy.
Instead, let’s bet on the Liberty’s offense, as I’m sure their coach Sandy Brondello has had her team watching film of Sky coach’s Teresa Weatherspoon’s hedging-heavy defensive scheme that gave New York so much trouble in the preseason. I don’t see a team total line out for New York at the time of this writing, but would play it up to 91.5.
I also like FanDuel’s odds for Jonquel Jones to get a double-double, at +105. Factor in the overall revenge angle from preseason with the height advantage JJ has over Elizabeth Williams and Angel Reese, and I think she’ll be owning that post match-up.
Best WNBA Predictions Today: New York Liberty Team Total Over and Jonquel Jones Double-Double
Washington Mystics @ Phoenix Mercury
The Mystics are 0-3 and missing their best player, Brittney Sykes, after losing several important offensive pieces in the off-season, including Natasha Cloud who now plays for…the Phoenix Mercury. The Mercury, on the other hand, are exceeding all possible expectations of them at this point in the season, off to a 2-1 start–including an upset of the reigning champion Aces–while missing star center Brittney Griner.
New Mercury head coach Nate Tibbets has emerged as a way-too-early Coach of the Year candidate, having transformed the Mercury’s offense to a modern three point shooting efficiency factory. Phoenix is the number-one three-point shooting team in the WNBA after opening week, leading the league in three-point attempts, and second in percentage by just .1%.
Phoenix is favored by 6.5 points at home against the Mystics, and when you factor out home court advantage, that leaves them only 2 or 3 points better than Washington on a neutral court. That, to me, is a bad handicap. I’d have this line closer to double digits. I’m going to divide this bet between the Mercury’s team total over and the spread–but this is a smash to me however you dice it.
Best WNBA Predictions Today: Phoenix Mercury -6.5 and/or Team Total Over
A large part of Tibbets’ offensive focus seems to be creating opportunities for off-season acquisition Kahleah Copper, who’s quickly become the centerpiece of this new offense. Copper has always been a superstar, but her offensive production, the sheer volume of it, under Tibbets this season has been like nothin we’ve ever seen from her. Kah has topped her previous career high twice already this season in just three games, scoring 38 and 37 points in her last two outings.
Small sample size, but Copper has lead the league in usage thus far this season, at an eye-popping 35.6% (for context, Jewell Loyd led the league last season with 31.5%). She’s attempting over 20 shots per game, and notably, 7 threes per outing. Kah’s three-point shooting improved her last two seasons in Chicago, but it’s never been an emphasis point the way it has been in Phoenix so far this season. Lines have adjusted up a bit to Copper’s production, with books hanging her points at 24.5, but I still think I have to go over here with her astronomical usage and shot diet.
Best WNBA Player Prop Bet: Kahleah Copper over 24.5 points
