The PGA Tour stays in California this week with the 2024 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am next up on the schedule. This is another staple of early-season golf, and with it comes another event that features multiple courses. However, the format has changed this year, which we will get into shortly. Now it’s time to discuss our PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am picks and best bets as we dive into the odds. If you’re looking to get some skin in the game on the PGA this week, check out a few of our every expert pick!
But before we get into this week’s picks, we must note the absurd run of winners so far in the PGA tour season. Last week was Matthieu Pavon’s turn, meaning another triple-digit outright winner. With all the firepower in this field, it’s safe to say a big name most likely wins, but there are still some potential sleepers down the board. Lets dive into the courses, field and who belongs on the outright card this week.
PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds, Picks & Betting Predictions for 2024
PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds & Tournament Preview
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | +800 |
| Rory McIlroy | +800 |
| Xander Schauffele | +1200 |
| Viktor Hovland | +1200 |
| Max Homa | +1600 |
| Patrick Cantlay | +1800 |
| Jordan Spieth | +1800 |
| Collin Morikawa | +2000 |
| Justin Thomas | +2200 |
| Ludvig Aberg | +2500 |
This week, we get a two-course rotation, meaning everyone gets three rounds at Pebble Beach with a round at Spyglass Hill on either Thursday or Friday. That’s not the only change this year: the field size is down to roughly 80 players with no cut at all. This ensures everyone will play the full four rounds, giving golfers plenty of time to move up and down the leaderboard.
Breaking down both Pebble and Spyglass is an exercise that leaves you with more questions than answers as the main defense of the courses are the elements. They are both short par 72s that, in the right conditions, players can attack and score on with ease. Golfers will have to be precise with their irons, so pure ball strikers get a bump up this week.
However, the big defense of these courses is the coastal winds, and for that we have to do a bit of guessing. If it gets windy, which it looks like it might during the weekend, then the conditions toughen up and the ability to scramble becomes that much more important.
Generally, I picture it as a sliding scale. Calm conditions and pure iron players are on one side, while windy conditions and better around-the-green players are on the other. With it being an elevated event, the field is loaded, so you are going to have a bunch of names who can contend in any condition. Here are a few targets that are at the top of my list when building my betting card this week.
PGA Outright Pick #1: Justin Thomas
In a field like this, you have some extreme win equity right at the top, and I wouldn’t fault anyone for adding a Rory McIlroy to the card even at such short odds. However, if you do survive the top of the board, then the prices we get on some big-name golfers are very appealing. Justin Thomas caught my eye at 22-1 and is coming off a quality third-place finish at the American Express. I’m intrigued: we know that JT can play in the elements and should be motivated after a poor 2023. He even flashed some good form to get this year started.
The biggest mystery is that we don’t normally see Thomas in this event, which is always another variable to consider. The positives are that he has seen Pebble plenty of times, has no glaring issues putting on Poa, and, again, is built to play in windy conditions if that’s what we get on Sunday. At 22-1, I have no problem backing a proven winner who comes in with some momentum after his top-five performance just a few weeks ago.
PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Pick: Justin Thomas +2200 at DraftKings
PGA Outright Pick #2: Russell Henley
We are already going down the outright board for our next guy in Russell Henley, who you can find upwards of 55-1. He is still a talented player, who, under the right conditions, can contend with the best in the world at any course.
Fortunately, I think these courses fits exactly where I’d like to target a guy like Henley with his precision irons and occasionally very hot putter. Like Thomas, this isn’t a frequent stop on his schedule, but the profile of the courses again fits what I picture Henley preferring in a layout.
It’s early in 2024, so we cannot overrate what we have seen, but it is nice to have a few data points to rely on. Henley was terrible at the Sentry, but he immediately bounced back with a fourth-place finish the next week at the Sony.
We haven’t seen him since then, so it’s been a mini-break for him, and I think that’s partly why we’re getting such an appealing price. I am willing to bet that he could bring some of that Sony Open form to Pebble, and if we strike a hot putting week, this is a dangerous player in this field.
PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Pick: Russell Henley +5500 at FanDuel
PGA Outright Pick #3: Hideki Matsuyama
He may not be the 150-1-type long-shot golfer we’ve seen hoisting trophies lately, but even with the strong field, I’m willing to back some guys further down the board. Again, that’s the one positive of having some of the best players in the world in the field: everyone else’s outright number goes up. Seeing Hideki Matsuyama at 80-1 immediately caught my eye, and he is on my outright card this week.
Last week, we got a hole-in-one from Matsuyama, but it wasn’t enough to keep him in the hunt at the Farmers. One positive is that he rallied on Sunday to finish 13th, and that momentum could help us here. It hasn’t been ball-striking holding Matsuyama back, but rather his putter, which needs to heat up for us to have a chance here.
Anticipating maybe a mix of conditions makes me even more interested in Matsuyama as he is both a pure ball striker and a quality around-the-green player. He will not be affected by tough gusty conditions if they get them, and it actually might further some of his advantages over the field. At 80-1, I’ll be willing to buy Hideki in most spots, and with him coming off a decent result last week, I suspect he’ll contend this week.
PGA AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Betting Pick: Hideki Matsuyama +8000 at FanDuel
OddsShopper’s PGA Betting Tools & Tips
Looking for more PGA predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets.
