Saturday gets the NHL Stanley Cup playoffs revving, and that means we have some big bets to cash in on. We’ll dive into my top NHL player props and anytime best bets for Saturday’s action, picks directly from our how to bet on NHL player props.
NHL Player Prop & Best Bets: Saturday, April 20
NHL Player Prop Bet: Kyle Palmieri
The New York Islanders essentially snuck into the playoffs thanks to playing in a top-heavy division that wasn’t particularly deep. Meanwhile, division rival Carolina narrowly missed out on the Presidents Trophy — 3 points back of the winning Rangers — and yet the Hurricanes don’t even get to celebrate a division crown.
Only one team in the Eastern Conference had a better goal differential than the Hurricanes, and it wasn’t the Rangers; it was the defending East champion Panthers at +68. Carolina did, however, allow fewer goals than any other team in the conference this year.
Now, the Islanders have had a decent amount of success against the Hurricanes, and Palmieri logged a point in three of four games. That said, the playoffs are a different animal, and the Islanders are clearly the inferior team. Carolina was a conference finalist last year and seems even more locked in for the 2024 run. The Islanders, on the other hand, are pretty middling and had a negative goal differential.
Hey, maybe New York shows something and makes this a series. But for Game 1, Carolina looks to be in a great spot despite the Islanders’ 8-1-1 finish to the season.
The thing we like most about targeting Palmieri’s under here, however, is market value at BetRivers. Palmieri has a 55% chance of failing to a point in Game 1, yet BetRivers has his odds at -115. Every other book is at -120 or worse, and most are at -125.
That is giving Palmieri’s under great market value and makes the under on 0.5 points +EV by 3.6% to lead all NHL player props for Saturday’s slate.
NHL Player Prop Pick Today: Kyle Palmieri points live odds page!
NHL Best Bet: Kings-Oilers First Period Total
Right now there is only one game line for the first set of matchups that is +EV in the OddsShopper model: Kings-Oilers under 1.5 first period goals. Now, what’s great about this play is that a lot of folks are going to attack the over; both of these teams were strong in 2023-24 in of high-danger and scoring chances.
The bears out with the 48% expected win rate as well.
But that is why we play the market. SuperBook has the under at +110, which is 1.7% +EV. Every other book is at +105 or worse, and all of those are -EV options.
Keep in mind that the 48% win expectancy keeps the recommended bet size on the low side: Just $5. But it is still the top game line on the board.
For reference, these two teams were 2-2 on the 1.5-goal over/under this year. That’s too small a sample size to be truly predictive, however.
What’s more predictive is the +106 OddsShopper True Odds for the under, which indicate that the +110 from SuperBook is bettable despite the win rate on the under being sub-50% on the win rate.
NHL Best Bet Today: Kings-Oilers Under 1.5 First Period Goals (+110, SuperBook)
OddsShopper’s NHL Tools & Tips
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