We went 4-1 on NBA player props over the first four play-in games, cashing tickets for Jonathan Kuminga (2x), Trayce Jackson-Davis and Coby White but losing a Clint Capela bet. Can we keep the hot run going? With the final two play-in games on tap, I’ve dug up some spots worth getting some action on with the help of NBA betting model for more picks!
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Nikola Vucevic & More
Nikola Vucevic Player Prop
With Jimmy Butler out for the Miami Heat, expect to see more minutes for big wings like Jaime Jaquez Jr., Haywood Highsmith and Nikola Jovic. All three players cause major problems for opposing offenses and hustle to the boards — while the trio rarely see the floor together, they’ll combine to make life hell for any Chicago Bulls on the floor.
I expect this to hurt no one more than center Nikola Vucevic. His relatively limited shot profile will age poorly against Miami — he takes 55% of his shots in the paint, where the Heat allow the third-fewest points per game (46.4) and the fewest since the All-Star Break (44.4).
Although Vucevic has some mid-range and 3-pointers in his bag, he has converted only 29% of his looks from above the break this year. His 45.5% conversion rate from mid-range could be a problem, but I doubt he’ll see the volume of shots necessary to make up for a reduction in interior scoring. But we’re not just fading him as a scorer — we’re combining his points and rebounds prop.
Since ing the Bulls, Vucevic has played in 10 regular-season games against Bam Adebayo. Through that sample, he is averaging 17.3 points and 11 rebounds (28.3), right at the 28.5 we’re getting on FanDuel. This season, however, his production dipped to 23 and 26 across a two-game sample. Someone should step up for Chicago, but it probably won’t be Vooch.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Nikola Vucevic points and rebounds live odds page!
Jaime Jaquez Jr. Player Prop
I posted a prop for the Pelicans-Kings game in our Discord, but I’m sticking with the Bulls-Heat game for the final article prop. Let’s get action on Jamie Jaquez Jr. over 3.5 rebounds tonight for -150 at FanDuel. With Jimmy Butler out, Jaquez should see more run. He averaged 3.8 rebounds per game this year, improving to 4.6 when Butler sits. I doubt this number will linger around for much longer — it’s a massively off-market alt line that I’m stunned is even still on the board:
As you can see, we’re beating the market by a massive margin. Books with the 3.5 all have the price set to -190 or shorter, including the -205 at positive expected value (+EV) like this one.
We can tell we’re getting +EV on this bet because our model’s estimate of the wager’s true odds clocks in at -163. The model generates this number by indexing the odds across the betting landscape; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and producing that breakeven price.
When a bet is available for a better price than its true odds, we know it’s +EV! Bets like this one, over a large enough sample size, can dramatically transform your bankroll just as the results to prove you’ll turn a profit over the long run.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Jaime Jaquez Jr. rebounds live odds page!
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