The Pittsburgh Steelers and Buffalo Bills will do battle on Monday afternoon. This game was originally scheduled for the early afternoon slot on Sunday, but a brutal blizzard has postponed it to Monday. Today’s forecast doesn’t call for snow but temperatures are expected to be well below freezing. Let’s dive into the best Steelers-Bills player prop picks and anytime touchdown scorer bets for Monday, including a pick for Mason Rudolph. Take a look at OddsShopper’s model for the most up-to-date odds and additional picks!
Steelers-Bills Player Props & Anytime Touchdown Bet | Wild Card
Steelers-Bills Odds for Monday
Odds via BetMGM
Steelers: +400 | Bills: -550
Steelers +10: -115 | Bills -10: -105
Over 38.5: -110 | Under 38.5: -110
Time: Monday, Jan. 15 at 4:30 p.m. ET
Steelers-Bills Player Prop Pick
Mason Rudolph O/U 170.5 ing Yards
Freezing conditions aren’t usually good for teams’ ing offenses. Buffalo’s defense hasn’t been friendly to quarterbacks, either — the Bills rank sixth in ing yards allowed per game (215.1) and seventh in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback.
Although the Bills have been inconsistent this year, I’m fading Rudolph regardless, largely because of his teammate, Kenny Pickett. A slow start could land Rudolph on the bench.
Rudolph’s range of outcomes is biased toward the under due to the non-zero chance Mike Tomlin has to re-insert Pittsburgh’s first-round quarterback to jump-start the offense. Rudolph has been a solid quarterback in his stead, completing 74.3% of his es for 179.8 yards per game, but I expect his late-season Cinderella run to come to a quick conclusion, much like what we saw with Joe Flacco. Rudolph’s 3-0 record may be impressive, but his first two starts came against non-playoff teams, and his final start came against a resting Ravens squad.
Buffalo’s ing defense has also played better at Highmark Stadium this year. The Bills have allowed just 176.5 net ing yards at home on the year, which ranks fifth in the NFL and third among playoff teams. Even if Rudolph plays every snap at quarterback today, Buffalo’s defense could easily keep him below the 171-yard threshold.
Steelers-Bills Player Prop Pick:
Mason Rudolph O/U 0.5 ing Touchdowns Let’s turn to OddsShopper’s tools for this pick, which is also for Pittsburgh quarterback Mason Rudolph. Rudolph clocks in at odds of +140 at bet365 (and +130 at BetMGM, if you can’t access bet365 in your state) to not throw a touchdown . Rudolph went without a ing score in his start versus Seattle but threw at least one touchdown in his other two starts. So how does the model work? identify +EV wagers. Take 20% off your first month via code “ISIROIS”! In this case, the true odds of this wager are +120, which means we’re getting 3.8 percentage points of edge at bet365 (and two percentage points at BetMGM). Lock this one in before the value gets bid off the board: DraftKings and FanDuel both have more efficient prices for this wager. Steelers-Bills Player Prop Pick: Mason Rudolph Under 0.5 ing Touchdowns +140 at bet365 Dalton Kincaid clocks in at odds of +330 on the anytime touchdown scorer market at FanDuel. Those odds are inefficiently long. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Kincaid at odds of +230. Most major public books have Kincaid trading at or below +300. Caesars even has this one at +185. That said, the edge we’re getting relative to the market is just one part of the reason why Kincaid is a sharp touchdown scorer pick today. The Bills won’t have wide receiver Gabe Davis this week, which frees up plenty of red-zone receiving volume. Davis ranked second on the team in targets inside the 20 (11) and was tied for first inside the 10 (5). Kincaid ranked third inside the 20 (9) and fourth inside the 10. The return of Dawson Knox limits Kincaid’s upside, but just not enough to warrant the +330 at FanDuel. The Steelers have surrendered seven receiving scores to tight ends this year, which ties them for the sixth most. Five of those scores came in Pittsburgh’s last six regular-season games as well. PlayerProfiler’s “best comparable player” to Kincaid, Isaiah Likely, just scored a touchdown versus this defense last week. Steelers-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer Bet:
Looking for more 2023 NFL predictions? market-based betting model’s picks and best bets!
Steelers-Bills Model Player Prop
Steelers-Bills Anytime Touchdown Scorer Pick
OddsShopper’s NFL Tools & Tips
