After a truly weird Week 5, we’re on to a (hopefully) more normal Week 6 slate. The action gets underway with the Seattle Seahawks hosting the San Francisco 49ers, but with both sides dealing with injuries on a short week, usage could be interesting. Before you leave, I recommend checking out our guides to NFL expert picks!
Seahawks-49ers Player Prop Pick for Geno Smith
The Seattle Seahawks have struggled to protect quarterback Geno Smith this season. As a unit, Seattle’s offensive line ranks 30th in -block win rate (48%). Smith has responded by running for 29.2 yards per game.
Of course, Smith hasn’t gone over his rushing prop (13.5 to 15.5, depending on your book) in every game. He stayed under against the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots, going over against only the New York Giants, Denver Broncos and Detroit Lions.
There are two key commonalities between the Giants, Broncos and Lions — (1) all three rank top-10 in -rush win rate and (2) all three generate pressure at a clip higher than 22.5%. Further, neither the Patriots nor the Dolphins fall into either bucket (1) or (2).
So, do the San Francisco 49ers fall into those buckets? Yes, they do. They rank sixth in -rush win rate (behind the Broncos and Giants but ahead of the Lions) and generate pressure 27.4% of the time. Smith should have to scramble, and his rushing prop is just a bit too low given what we know about his opponent.
You’ll find Smith to go over 13.5 rushing yards for -114 at FanDuel. I usally like to ladder my primetime overs, but I don’t think there is much upside in doing so here.
Seahawks-49ers Player Prop Pick: Geno Smith Over 13.5 Rushing Yards -114 at BetRivers
Seahawks-49ers Anytime Touchdown Bet for Thursday Night Football
If we cash this Seahawks-49ers anytime touchdown prop, you can get 70% off Portfolio EV with code “THATS6” for the 24 hours following the score!
You may be surprised to learn that big-bodied boundary receiver DK Metcalf doesn’t lead Seattle in targets inside the 20-yard line. He doesn’t even lead the wide receiver room in such targets! Instead, that honor belongs to second-year wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
JSN has three targets from plays originating inside the 20, edging out Metcalf’s two; he also has four targets thrown into the red zone, again edging Metcalf’s two. Of course, Metcalf is well known for scoring by generating yards after the catch, but red-zone targets are a more reliable predictor of red-zone success.
When we look at the odds board, things get even more interesting. JSN clocks in at +205 to find paydirt at DraftKings. While he is a bit longer to do so at Pinnacle (+235), Metcalf is all the way down at a best price of +150 (including the Pinny line). Most public books have JSN at +200 or +190.
There isn’t much of an odds disparity to exploit, but getting even the slightest misprice can be a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy. Smith seems to have as much (if not more) trust in his young wide receiver than his veteran weapons in Metcalf and Tyler Lockett.
Seahawks-49ers Anytime Touchdown Bet: Jaxon Smith-Njigba +205 at DraftKings
