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Week 1 of the 2023 NFL preseason has arrived. While it isn’t meaningful football, it’s still football, so we’re going to be betting on it each week. I don’t recommend putting too much of your bankroll on what are essentially novelty bets, as there are no stakes for the teams taking the field, but preseason football is a lot more watchable when you have skin in the game. Let’s dive into my NFL preseason Week 1 predictions so that we can talk about the best preseason picks for Eagles-Ravens, Chiefs-Saints and more Week 1 action.
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NFL Preseason Week 1 Predictions: Best Eagles-Ravens, Chiefs-Saints Picks
Texans-Patriots NFL Preseason Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Texans: -130 | Patriots: +110
Texans -2.5: -105 | Patriots +2.5: -115
Over 39.5: -110 | Under 39.5: -110
The New England Patriots will host the Houston Texans on Thursday at 7 p.m. ET. The total for Thursday’s action has been bid up to 39.5, which is tied for the highest of all Week 1 preseason games. It’s surprising to see the total this high — New England’s games saw an average of 34.3 points scored per contest, while Houston’s saw 30.3. Projecting them to combine for 40 feels a little bold, but perhaps the books are banking on public bettors expecting big things early from C.J. Stroud.
Of course, the Texans and Patriots are very different teams than they were last year. The Texans now have Stroud at quarterback. They also replaced head coach Lovie Smith with DeMeco Ryans, another defensive-minded coach. Stroud is still in a quarterback competition with Davis Mills, so we’re likely to see them both. The Patriots have a new offensive coordinator in Bill O’Brien, and they also have a minor quarterback controversy on their hands after Bailey Zappe looked great in relief of Mac Jones last season.
Despite the new tools both teams will want to show off in the preseason, I’m skeptical of both offenses but have faith in the defenses. Jones and Zappe have unproven weapons like Kayshon Boutte, Tyquan Thornton and Malik Cunningham (who is attempting to make the roster as a receiver). They also don’t have much from the backfield. Mills and Stroud have mostly unproven weapons as well — Nico Collins, John Metchie, Tank Dell and Xavier Hutchinson are surprisingly high on the depth chart because Houston’s best veterans at the position are Robert Woods and Noah Brown.
Let’s lock in the under because this number is too high. Two defensive coaches, several young quarterbacks and a lengthy list of inexperienced receivers do not a high-scoring game make. Ryans announced that Stroud would start Houston’s first preseason game, so there could be some growing pains on the opening few drives — especially with Bill Belichick on the opposite sideline. This number may fluctuate between 39.5 and 38.5 throughout the week, so make sure to get the best one you can.
For updated Texans-Patriots odds and picks, click here.
Texans-Patriots NFL Preseason Pick: Under 39.5 -110 at FanDuel
Broncos-Cardinals NFL Preseason Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Broncos: -240 | Cardinals: +200
Broncos -5.5: -110 | Cardinals +5.5: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
Should any team be a 5.5-point underdog in an NFL preseason game? Perhaps — this Arizona Cardinals roster isn’t good in some important areas, namely quarterback, where Colt McCoy figures to open the regular season as the starter. Meanwhile, the Denver Broncos intend to play their starters early in this one. But the Cardinals have some interesting depth options, including rookie Clayton Tune, who was efficient in a high-volume role at Houston over the last few seasons, racking up 6,618 ing yards, 70 ing touchdowns and only 20 interceptions through that span.
Fans and bettors are right to be skeptical of the Cardinals, especially after one of their training camp lowlights went viral, but it’s important to consider how skeptical we should be. All reports out of Arizona suggest that Tune has looked exceptional, which shouldn’t come as a huge surprise given his impressive college resume. Solid play from Tune should limit the chances Arizona gives to its other backup options, which include David Blough and Jeff Driskel. But even though McCoy, Blough and Driskel aren’t high-upside guys, they have the preseason experience under their belts necessary to put some points on the board.
The Cardinals will face the Broncos on Friday in a transition year for both teams. Arizona parted ways with head coach Kliff Kingsbury, replacing him with Jonathan Gannon from Philadelphia, a first-time head coach. The Broncos opted to bring in Sean Payton, so while Payton has a lot to figure out with this roster, he doesn’t have anything to prove in the preseason. However, it’s not unreasonable to expect him to leave the starters out there for quite a while. In 2021, he featured his then-first team quarterback, Jameis Winston, in both of the Saints’ preseason games. Winston stayed in the game for four drives in Week 1 and three in Week 2.
We know the Broncos will deploy the high-end talent necessary to put points on the board early. We don’t know how the Cardinals will cycle through their quarterbacks, but we’re likely to get a heavy dose of Tune at some point. If Gannon decides to use Tune later in the game, he could get a chance to exploit Denver’s second or third-string players. The total opened at 36.5 but has been bid up to 37.5. I’m willing to play this at 39.5 or lower, but let’s try to take advantage of the 37.5 before it disappears.
For updated Broncos-Cardinals odds and picks, click here.
Broncos-Cardinals NFL Preseason Pick: Over 37.5 -110 at FanDuel
Eagles-Ravens NFL Preseason Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Eagles: +210 | Ravens: -250
Eagles +6: -110 | Ravens -6: -110
Over 35.5: -110 | Under 35.5: -110
Death, taxes and the Baltimore Ravens winning preseason football games. The Ravens haven’t dropped a preseason contest since the 1-3 run in 2015 that preceded John Harbaugh’s worst season as a head coach. Yes, 2015: the Ravens have now won their last 23 preseason games. Although Baltimore usually starts out ahead, builds the lead and maintains it, the team’s final preseason game last season proved that wasn’t always the case. The Ravens trailed in the first quarter and never made it a two-score game — the defense just stayed aggressive enough to seal the win.
This year’s Ravens shouldn’t be any different. Although we’re unlikely to see Lamar Jackson under center come Saturday, last year’s preseason quarterbacks, Tyler Huntley and Anthony Brown, are both still in town. So is veteran Josh Johnson, who even started for the Ravens in a regular-season game in 2021. They’ll all have to pick up new offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s scheme, which may prove difficult, but they’ll also get a much deeper ing cast than we’re used to seeing in Charm City, especially at wide receiver. Offseason acquisitions like first-round rookie Zay Flowers and Nelson Agholor should play several snaps.
If the Ravens are known for caring about the preseason, the Eagles are not. Philadelphia went 1-2 in exhibition play last year, barely escaping the Cleveland Browns by a single point. They even allowed the New York Jets to put together two go-ahead drives deep in the fourth quarter in Week 1 last year. The low-effort showing followed a 0-2-1 preseason campaign from the year before. Head coach Nick Sirianni, who took over the team that year, doesn’t seem to worry about setting the tone during the preseason as John Harbaugh does, so trusting the Ravens to continue their winning ways isn’t the worst idea.
Of course, the books know the Ravens are on a 23-game preseason winning streak. The juice is stacked in their favor as a result, but perhaps by an insufficiently wide margin at some books. You’ll find Baltimore listed at -255 (71.8%) at Pinnacle, a sharp book, and -250 (71.4%) at FanDuel, so the -225 (69.2%) via BetMGM stands out as a +EV wager. While you still need the Ravens to win a meaningless preseason game at least 70% of the time to make a profit at that price, there is still enough edge here to warrant some action — just don’t go too crazy with this one.
For updated Eagles-Ravens odds and picks, click here.
Eagles-Ravens NFL Pick: Baltimore Moneyline -225 at BetMGM
Chiefs-Saints NFL Preseason Week 1 Prediction
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Chiefs: +145 | Saints: -170
Chiefs +3: +100 | Saints -3: -120
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
For the first time in several seasons, the Kansas City Chiefs have a choice to make at quarterback. No, not at starting quarterback: Patrick Mahomes has that locked down. But after the Chiefs won last year’s Super Bowl LVII, backup quarterback Chad Henne retired, leaving the Chiefs to find some other solution. Kansas City has added Blaine Gabbert and retained Shane Buechele, both of whom have contributed meaningfully in preseasons past. They’ll line up against a Saints quarterback room that includes Derek Carr, Jameis Winston and Jake Haener.
We can expect to see plenty of experienced players on the field come Sunday. Although the Chiefs may not need more film to evaluate Mahomes, Gabbert or Buechele, don’t be surprised to see them out there for extended runs on Sunday. Reid used Mahomes and Henne in last year’s preseason opener and has a reason to do so again due to the team’s long list of departures: wide receivers Mecole Hardman Jr. and JuJu Smith-Schuster both left, as did offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy. The Saints have already announced their intention to play their starters as well.
Both the Chiefs and Saints should get high-quality play out of their quarterbacks on Sunday, which takes some of the load off their receiving corps. The Chiefs are somewhat thin there now, but rookie Rashee Rice and Skyy Moore should get a chance to make some noise in the preseason. The electric Justyn Ross could get some chances late as well, especially after his impressive performances in training camp. The Saints should use Chris Olave for a few snaps, but behind him, Rashid Shaheed and Bryan Edwards stand out as potential playmakers — as does 36-year-old Jimmy Graham.
While you do expect a high-scoring game out of teams that often feature Sunday’s stars in the preseason, some books are doing a better job of expecting that outcome than others. The total sits at 37.5 across the market, but you’ll find the over priced at -115 (53.5%) at Pinnacle but -110 (52.4%) via FanDuel. This isn’t a ton of edge, but with so many experienced quarterbacks on both sides, it’s safe to expect more offensive fireworks than usual. This total may tick up if Reid announces anything about his strategy for Week 1 of the NFL preseason, so make sure to get your action down early.
For updated Chiefs-Saints odds and picks, click here.
Chiefs-Saints NFL Preseason Pick: Over 37.5 -110 at FanDuel
