Even though the season is a week away, the conversation surrounding who will be this year’s NFL MVP has been circulating for months. Here, we’ll break down the NFL MVP odds for the 2024-25 season, most recently updated as of Wednesday, August 28. We’ll also highlight a pair of NFL expert picks for this year’s MVP Award!
NFL MVP Award Odds 2024-25: Expert Betting Picks
NFL MVP Award Betting Odds 2024-25
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NFL MVP Award Betting Odds 2024-25
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Patrick Mahomes | +475 |
| Josh Allen | +850 |
| C.J. Stroud | +850 |
| Joe Burrow | +900 |
| Jordan Love | +1400 |
| Jalen Hurts | +1400 |
| Aaron Rodgers | +1600 |
| Dak Prescott | +1800 |
| Lamar Jackson | +1800 |
| Brock Purdy | +2000 |
NFL MVP Award Odds Analysis
Since its inception in 1957, the NFL MVP award has been won by 46 quarterbacks, 18 running backs, two defensive players and one kicker. Quarterbacks have claimed the award every season since Adrian Peterson won it in 2012.
Heading into the 2024 season, DraftKings lists Patrick Mahomes as the favorite at +475 (17.4%) to win the award for what would be his third time.
While Mahomes has solidified himself as the league’s best player, it’s still wise to consider other players due to potential voter fatigue and better value elsewhere.
Josh Allen and C.J. Stroud follow Mahomes with the next shortest odds. Allen is working with fewer weapons after the departure of Stefon Diggs and will presumably be in a tougher division this season.
It’s no surprise seeing Stroud toward the top after his terrific rookie campaign, where he threw for over 4,000 yards with 23 touchdowns and five interceptions.
Further down the board, familiar faces to this award in Aaron Rodgers (4x winner) and Lamar Jackson (2x winner), appear in the double-digit range.
Rodgers is coming off an Achilles injury that kept him sidelined all of last year. Jackson is the reigning MVP winner who is looking to go back-to-back like the aforementioned Rodgers did in 2020 and 2021 seasons.
NFL MVP Award Odds: Expert Betting Picks (2024-25)
Jalen Hurts is my choice. At 26, he’s set up for his best season yet, especially after adding running back Dallas Goedert. Plus, the Eagles’ schedule is very favorable and provides plenty of opportunities to pad those stats that will catch voter’s eyes. Their opponents’ average EPA per play ranking from last season is 16th – right at the league average.
While defenses evolve and it’s tough to predict which ones will improve or decline, one thing is clear: Philadelphia’s offense is going to be even better. Hurts came close to winning the NFL MVP in 2022, but an injury in Week 15 sidelined him for two games, allowing Mahomes to overtake him. This season, Hurts is ready to claim this award.
NFL Expert MVP 2024-25 Pick: Jalen Hurts (+1400 at DraftKings)
@is_sirois: Good Lord — NFL bettors have short memories. Do you last year’s MVP race at all? In Week 15 of last season, the odds board looked like this: Dak Prescott (+160), Brock Purdy (+200) and Lamar Jackson (+700).
Then, the Dallas Cowboys lost consecutive games to the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins, while the San Francisco 49ers fell to Jackson’s Baltimore Ravens. This should remind you that whoever you bet on to win MVP has to win.
There is another thread to dissect here, too. Last season, San Francisco’s offense led the NFL in EPA per play in the regular season. Dallas ranked second. Logically, Purdy and Prescott were first and second in the metric at quarterback.
The 2022 MVP, Patrick Mahomes, led in EPA per play. When Aaron Rodgers won MVP in 2021 and 2020, he finished the regular season ranked first in EPA per play both times.
So, generally, unless a quarterback provides game-breaking upside as a rusher, they need to provide elite ing efficiency (or at least play in a hyper-efficient offense).
This year, you’ll find Brock Purdy trading at 20-1 to win MVP. Not only has he proven that he can lead the NFL in EPA per play, but he also plays in the offense that, from 2021 to 2024, leads the NFL in EPA per play.
Potentially losing Brandon Aiyuk could hurt, but who cares? Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey and George Kittle are still here. If the 49ers are in need of weapons, they can just trade for them.
For my full NFL Futures card (I profited The Profit Isaiah!
NFL Expert MVP 2024-25 Pick: Brock Purdy (+2000 at DraftKings)
