The New York Jets may have lost quarterback in Aaron Rodgers in Week 1, but they still pulled off a win over the Buffalo Bills. They’ll look to make it two wins in a row when they face the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday, but the sportsbooks don’t seem very confident in New York’s chances. Let’s dig into Sunday’s Jets-Cowboys betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 2 bet!
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Jets-Cowboys Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 2
Jets-Cowboys Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Jets: +330 | Cowboys: -420
Jets +8.5: -105 | Cowboys -8.5: -115
Over 38.5: -105 | Under 38.5: -115
Jets-Cowboys Pick & Prediction
The New York Jets, less than a week after losing star quarterback Aaron Rodgers, must get ready to face the Dallas Cowboys in Arlington this weekend. The Cowboys enter this game fresh off a 40-point beatdown of the New York Giants in which they did everything well except move the ball on offense — which may just be because they didn’t have to move it much. These teams own two of the NFL’s best rushes, and while both sides have some electric offensive playmakers like Breece Hall, CeeDee Lamb and Tony Pollard, you’ve just got to take the under here after watching both offenses in Week 1.
I’ll start with the easy stuff: the Jets are one of the NFL’s worst offenses when Wilson is on the field. He ranked last among eligible quarterbacks in expected points added (EPA) per dropback in 2022. While some offseason improvement is possible, he doesn’t have much help in the trenches — New York’s offensive line coughed up three sacks for a loss of 23 yards. The unit ranked a dreadful 32nd in -block win rate (30%). Even the New York Giants were credited with a -block win rate of 45% despite letting Daniel Jones get sacked seven times for a loss of 47 yards. Tackle Mekhi Becton received a PFF grade of 59.7 for his efforts in Week 1, while guard Laken Tomlinson earned a 40.3.
Let’s turn to a pill that might be more difficult to swallow: the Cowboys did not look all that great on offense. Again, they weren’t asked to do much — Dallas already had a 16-point lead by the second time Dak Prescott began an offensive drive. But Prescott completed only 54.2% of his es for 5.9 net yards per attempt (NY/A), which isn’t good, especially since the Dallas offensive line protected him well — Prescott faced pressure on only 16% of his dropbacks. Worse, they’ll now face a Jets defense that ranked sixth in EPA per play allowed last year — far better than the 28th-ranked Giants.
Total bettors may have a bit too much confidence in both of these offenses early in the year, so I advise getting some action down on the under. The post-Moore Cowboys are likely to run their offense much more slowly than before: Moore’s Cowboys ranked third in seconds per play last year, but the last offense Schottenheimer ran, the 2020 Seattle Seahawks, ranked 18th. The Jets rank 27th in seconds per play after Week 1 and are likely to focus on running the ball to minimize Wilson’s chances of making a mistake.
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Unsurprisingly, the total has ticked down over the course of the week. I recommended playing the under at 39.5 in the early week column, but it’s now down to 38.5 due to sharp action and the surprising injury designation for wide receiver Brandin Cooks, who caught two of his four targets for 22 yards last week. Dallas lacks experienced receivers behind Lamb and Michael Gallup, which could make Prescott’s life difficult come Sunday afternoon. Pregame reports that 79% of the handle is on the under on only 62% of the tickets. Let’s tail the sharps and hope for a low-scoring game on Sunday.
Jets-Cowboys NFL Week 2 Pick: Under 38.5 -110 at BetMGM
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