We’re getting there, folks — just a month stands between us and real NFL action. But don’t just sit on your thumbs and let the Week 1 betting value you by because we have real +EV bets populating in OddsShopper’s NFL betting model! Since there is a lot of time before these bets come to fruition, the value is likely to dissipate before long — so get these in now before they become -EV. With that said, these are the early NFL Week 1 best bets, including Jets-49ers.
NFL Week 1 Best Bets: Early +EV Game Lines
NFL Week 1: Commanders-Buccaneers O/U 42.0
Here we have a young team with hope under a new quarterback taking on a 2023 playoff team that didn’t lose much in the offseason.
The public is in on the Buccaneers at home in this matchup, but it isn’t by all that much from a spread standpoint given they are at home: Just +4 and even -110 at the moment. They are a bit further along as -195 moneyline favorites, however.
Neither of those lines look great; instead, OddsShopper’s NFL betting model finds a slight edge on the under of 42 points. The true odds here (how the model determines the breakeven point where bets become profitable long-term) are -113, so any odds shorter than that are bettable.
Caesars is the only one offering such odds right now at an even -110. A bunch of other books are also -110, but they have moved the line down a half point to 41.5. Caesars may very well do the same before long — which is why you have to get in on this bet early before they do so.
Though Tampa Bay bested expectations last year to make the playoffs, it was still in the bottom half of the NFL in points and yards. The Commanders are tougher to decipher; they were 25th in points and 24th in yards, but now Jayden Daniels is under center and a lot could change with this offense.
For now, we prefer to assume Daniels will need some time to improve, and thus the under is the play here.
Best Early NFL Week 1 Bet: Commanders-Buccaneers Under 42.0 (-110, Caesars)
NFL Week 1: Jets-49ers O/U 45.5
We’re sticking with the same story here and leaning on another under.
On the one hand, the 49ers narrowly trail the Chiefs as the Super Bowl favorites on DraftKings (+600 versus +500). The Jets are well behind that but figure to be better this year if Aaron Rodgers stays healthy.
On the other, these are two defensively minded teams, even though San Francisco did have the No. 3 scoring offense in the NFL last year. The Niners also allowed the third-fewest points, while the Jets were 12th in that category and third in fewest yards allowed.
Plus, now there is a full season of Brock Purdy tape, so he isn’t surprising anyone anymore. And there’s the matter of San Francisco possibly trading Brandon Aiyuk. A lot can change in the next month, which is why we’re hopping on the value in the NFL betting model while we can.
Speaking of which, this bet actually moves the needle in of OS Rating.
The first bet didn’t quite get there, while this one gets an OS Rating of 1 and a recommended bet size of $4. Again, this isn’t a huge edge, but with 1.6% positive expected value (+EV), we can work with this. Long-term, bets like these are profitable.
Also, most other books have the line down to 45.0, and DraftKings is keeping the hook for now. Once that’s gone, the bet loses value, so make sure to keep an eye on what line you are getting when you make this bet.
Best Early NFL Week 1 Bet: Jets-49ers Under 45.5 (-110, DraftKings)
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