Crapshoot city, here we come! The Super Bowl is all about the fun bets as much as it is about the traditional game lines and player props, and DraftKings Sportsbook has one of the more fun, outside-the-box betting options this year: Number Specials. These are bets on players to hit their jersey number exactly in some way — no over/unders, just a simple question of will they or won’t they hit their number on the dot. Let’s get into some of the best specials for the Big Game — and yes, Patrick Mahomes will feature heavily.
DraftKings Super Bowl Number Specials: Patrick Mahomes & More
Player data can help us a little bit here, as can gameflow expectations, but since we have to hit these numbers exactly, there is a lot of guessing within the range of outcomes and hoping for the best. But if we get the best, we’re going to make some solid money without investing a ton. We’ll pick one at three price points.
Brock Purdy First Completion To Be Exactly 13 Yards (+800)
Patrick Mahomes First Completion To Be Exactly 15 Yards (+800)
These plays are both great because we get them out of the way early. First that is caught on both sides either wins or loses the bet for us — simple as that. This is basically the first basket or YRFI/NRFI prop of Super Bowl Number Specials.
Let’s start with Mahomes since his higher jersey number means he has to complete the longer . In his three Super Bowl appearances, Mahomes’ first completions went for 20, 3 and 9 yards, and two of those went to Travis Kelce. In these playoffs, they were 4, 25 and 11 — again, two to Kelce. What’s also important to know is that there was no trend for any of the first es of the game from Kansas City — some were quick catch-and-runs, some were deep drops with downfield throws.
The point is that Andy Reid could do anything with Mahomes’ first dropback, but the odds of it going to Kelce are high, and 15 yards is a reasonable range to target at +800.
As for Purdy, we have a lot more yards-after-catch potential with San Francisco. His first completions this postseason went for 11 and 15 yards, so we’re right in the ballpark — though his first in one of those games was an incompletion to Kyle Juszczyk. Most like, Kyle Shanahan will run the ball on first and maybe second down to set up play action or a wide receiver screen on the third play. We’ll know quickly whether we win or lose, and that is most of the fun with this bet.
Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush To Be Exactly 15 Yards (+1600)
Sticking with Mahomes for a longer play, this one actually has recent examples of success. Mahomes’ longest rush was exactly 15 yards twice this season, and he was within 2 yards of 15 five other times. He also consistently carries the ball five or six times again, which means a lot of bites at the apple. Now, we will have to see the full game play out, but of all the longest rushes/receptions jersey specials on DraftKings’ board, Mahomes’ looks like the best combination of probability and odds.
Number Special to Avoid: Jake Moody To Have Exactly 4 Kicking Points (+1500)
The kicking points specials look fun on paper, but the paths to Moody getting exactly 4 points are twofold and quite unlikely given the 49ers offense: Either one PAT and one touchdown or four PATs. Moody making zero field goals is not impossible — he had five such games this season — but in that case he has to hit exactly four extra points. That only happened in one of his five field goal-less games this year.
Even less likely is San Francisco managing just one touchdown and one field goal. The Chiefs defense is good, but the 49ers have too many weapons for that. Even though these odds are good at +1500, Mahomes longest rush is better at +1600 and is a more likely outcome.
Harrison Butker exactly 7 kicking points is better in of how it fits with the game flow, but it’s only +800. Just stay away from these kicking points specials.
