The NFL is back in London this week, which means another day of wall-to-wall football action starting early in the morning and running through the late night (well, hopefully less late than last week). We’ll tackle my top picks for this week’s NFL London Game, and before you leave, I recommend checking out our guides to NFL expert picks!
Bears-Jaguars Player Prop Pick for Rome Odunze
We just saw the Indianapolis Colts cook the Jacksonville Jaguars multiple times with speedy wideout Alec Pierce. He racked up a monstrous 134 yards and a score on just three receptions. The Jaguars’ secondary ranks 32nd in receiving yards allowed per game to wideouts (210.4) and that will remain a problem this week against Chicago.
The Bears have three incredibly talented wide receivers: Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze and D.J. Moore. Moore leads the unit in output this season with 58.8 receiving yards per game. Moore has a 100% route participation rate this season, including last week’s big win over Carolina.
But we’re not talking about Moore in this space: We’re talking about Rome Odunze. Odunze’s route participation rate on the season (95.9%) and last week (100%) prove that he has been on the field nearly as much as Moore. While Moore has 42 targets, Odunze has 29 — 69% of the share. Yet Odunze’s receiving yardage prop is 40.5, much more than 69% below Moore’s 69.5 prop line.
Low-hanging fruit aside, Odunze is a sharp bet at his current rate of volume to go over 40.5 receiving yards. He has the talent to get behind the defense, and, as Pierce showed us last week, that’s a recipe for offensive success against this Jacksonville defense. I feel comfortable laddering Odunze up to 60-plus, a number he cleared back against the Colts in Week 3.
Bears-Jaguars Player Prop Pick: Rome Odunze Over 40.5 Receiving Yards -114 at BetRivers
Bears-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Bet for NFL London Game
I’m sorry, what? We cashed Roschon Johnson to score a touchdown last week at odds of +260 because it was clear that the Chicago Bears wanted to start using him as their goal-line back. He proceeded tally a career-high three red-zone carries, scoring two total touchdowns, bringing him to seven red-zone carries and three scores over the last three weeks.
You’d think the books would be charging more for Johnson to score this week, but that isn’t the case in a few spots. You can get him for +250 at both ESPN BET lists it at +160.
We’re actually beating the whole rest of the market with the +250. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Johnson at +248. Betting on even the slightest misprice can be a profitable anytime touchdown scorer betting strategy, and it’s the one we’re employing with this pick for London. Let’s hope that we can cash two easy bets before the rest of the games kick off.
Bears-Jaguars Anytime Touchdown Bet: Roschon Johnson +250 at DraftKings
