The San Francisco 49ers will take on the Cleveland Browns in Week 6. The Browns won’t have Deshaun Watson, so they’ll roll with P.J. Walker. Each week, I post my NFL breakdowns early and provide updates later in the week, and you can find the rest of my Week 6 picks here. Let’s dig into Sunday’s 49ers-Browns betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best NFL Week 6 bet!
49ers-Browns Pick & Betting Prediction | NFL Week 6
49ers-Browns Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
49ers: -245 | Browns: +205
49ers -5.5: -110 | Browns +5.5: -110
Over 37.5: -110 | Under 37.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Sunday, Oct. 15 at 1 p.m. ET
49ers-Browns Pick & Prediction
After last week’s beatdown of the Dallas Cowboys, what does quarterback Brock Purdy have left to prove? Even after the brutal loss, the Dallas defense still ranks fourth in expected points added (EPA) allowed per dropback and first in -rush win rate (60%). Purdy now gets another tough defense, and he’ll have to play this one on the road, but I’m willing to trust him to cover. The Browns may rank third in EPA allowed per rush and first in EPA allowed per dropback, but their impotent offense will make it incredibly difficult for them to keep this close. Cleveland ranks a dreadful 24th in EPA per rush and 30th in EPA per dropback. Some of that underperformance falls on a bad start for backup quarterback Dorian Thompson-Robinson, but Deshaun Watson only ranks 23rd in adjusted EPA per dropback. Purdy ranks first. This week’s starter, P.J. Walker, is unranked.
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The spread for Sunday’s game is wide, to be sure — the 49ers are trading as a 9.5-point favorite. It’s worth asking if that’s a wide enough margin. The 49ers rank 10th in EPA per rush, first in EPA per dropback, 19th in EPA allowed per rush and third in EPA allowed per dropback. They have won each of their five games by at least seven points and all but one by at least 10. San Francisco’s defensive front also ranks eighth in -rush win rate (51%) and 13th in run-stop win rate (32%). Cleveland’s offensive line may lead the NFL in -block win rate (70%), but the unit ranks 24th in run-block win rate (69%). Because the Browns have struggled to set up runs, largely relying on the talent of their backs, they are poorly positioned to capitalize on San Francisco’s primary defensive vulnerability.
Back in the early week column — when this spread was still just 5.5 — I wrote that bettors thinking about putting their action down on this game early must also consider whether Deshaun Watson is even playing. He was supposed to suit up against the Ravens in Week 4, but news that he would sit broke late — and the betting market that had favored the Browns all week quickly swung in the Ravens’ favor, and correctly. Watson is dealing with a rotator cuff injury in his throwing shoulder and has already been ruled out, thrusting P.J. Walker into the starting role. As a result, it’s no surprise that the line has moved so heavily in San Francisco’s favor.
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We know enough about Walker to know this game won’t end well. Although he has a 4-3 record as a starter, he has completed only 57.5% of his es for 6.4 yards per attempt. Walker has thrown five touchdowns to 11 interceptions. The former XFL star ranks 81st of 85 quarterbacks to take at least 96 snaps between 2020 and 2023 in Ben Baldwin’s EPA/OE composite score. That trails first-ranked Purdy and 12th-ranked Watson, along with the likes of 71st-ranked Sam Ehlinger, 76th-ranked Tim Boyle and 79th-ranked Jeff Driskel. The Cleveland defense is scary, but the 49ers should be favored by a bigger margin than this one. While I’m comfortable with the amount of action I already have on the 49ers, bettors without an early ticket should feel comfortable about buying San Francisco at this price.
49ers-Browns NFL Week 6 Pick: San Francisco -9.5 -110 at Bet365
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