The Virginia Tech Hokies and Marshall Thundering Herd will square off in Huntington on Saturday, and the Sun Belt hosts are favored over their ACC visitors. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Virginia Tech-Marshall odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Virginia Tech-Marshall Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Virginia Tech-Marshall Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Virginia Tech: +168 | Marshall: -205
Virginia Tech +4.5: -105 | Marshall -4.5: -115
Over 41.5: -105 | Under 41.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Virginia Tech-Marshall Pick & Prediction
It’s not every day that you see a Power Five team listed as an underdog to a Group of Five squad, but that’s what we’ve got in Saturday afternoon’s battle between the Marshall Thundering Herd and the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Hokies are 11-2 against the Herd, but these programs are trending in very different directions. Marshall ranks 63rd in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) after Week 3, while Virginia Tech ranks 83rd. The Herd are a 4.5-point home favorite for this one, but I think they should be favored by at least a full touchdown against the lowly Hokies. Virginia Tech enters this contest at 1-2, while Marshall is 2-0 and coming off an early bye.
The Herd are a marginally better offensive team, which is embarrassing for the Hokies, because Marshall is primarily a defensive squad. Marshall ranks 40th in yards per play (5.8), albeit in a one-game sample, after averaging 5 yards per play last year. Virginia Tech ranks 95th (4.6) after averaging 4.4 last year. Heading into Week 4, Marshall’s offense is 105th in the FEI, slightly behind Virginia Tech’s 96th-ranked unit. The Hokies have been using a combination of ex-Marshall quarterback Grant Wells and Kyron Drones because of an early-season injury to Wells. Wells missed Week 3’s game, and Drones proceeded to record a dismal ing efficiency grade of 113.3 at Rutgers.
Marshall is also the categorically better defensive team. The Herd rank third in yards allowed per play (3.7), which is slightly better than but relatively consistent with what they let up last year (4.6). Tech ranks 46th (5.1) and is also outperforming last year’s production (5.3). But it’s the FEI that makes it obvious how much better Marshall is on that side of the ball — the Herd rank 13th while the Hokies rank 78th entering Week 4. With the Hokies either starting a quarterback with whom the Herd are deeply familiar or a struggling backup, it should prove difficult for Virginia Tech to move the football.
These teams both have pretty embarrassing situational records against the spread. Marshall is 2-5 ATS at home since last year while Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS on the road. However, Virginia Tech is 0-3 with a rest disadvantage since 2021, which includes one game in the Brent Pry era. Marshall is 6-6 ATS in non-conference play under head coach Charles Huff, but Virginia Tech is 2-5 ATS in non-conference play under Pry. The Herd offense will have to have its act together to cover the 5-point spread, but the defense should give them a short field at least once or twice.
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After opening as a 7-point favorite, ticking down a 5-point favorite by the time the early week column went up, Marshall has ticked down to a 4.5-point favorite in most spots. This line movement is somewhat surprising to me, as injury reports about Wells don’t sound encouraging. Pregame even reports that Marshall has attracted 92% of the cash on only 56% of the tickets. The Herd are the far sharper side of this market, so don’t be surprised if the early-week steam gets reversed before kickoff as limit sizes increase. Marshall remains a 5-point favorite at Pinnacle, a sharp book.
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Virginia Tech-Marshall Week 4 Pick: Marshall -4.5 -110 at DraftKings
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