In one of the earliest games on Saturday’s college football card, the Vanderbilt Commodores will visit the Wake Forest Demon Deacons — and I like the dogs in this one. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 2 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Vanderbilt-Wake Forest betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 2 bet!
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Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 2
Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Vanderbilt: +310 | Wake Forest: -400
Vanderbilt +10: -110 | Wake Forest -10: -110
Over 56.5: -105 | Under 56.5: -115
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Pick & Prediction
When these teams met last season, Sam Hartman led the Wake Forest Demon Deacons to a 20-point road win, covering the 13.5-point spread with ease. Hartman threw for 300 yards, 47.3% of which came on es to A.T. Perry, as the then-ranked Deacons easily bested the Vanderbilt Commodores. But now both Hartman and Perry are gone, leaving the Deacons as only a 10-point home favorite over the ‘Dores. That spread just feels a little too wide to me, and I love the opportunity to get Vanderbilt plus so many points on Saturday — make sure to lock this one in before it ticks under the key number of 10.
Wake Forest got much worse in the offseason. The Deacons replaced Hartman, who ranked 15th in ing efficiency last season at 159.4, with backup Mitch Griffis. Griffis hasn’t been bad in the limited action we’ve seen him to date, as he owns a career ing efficiency grade of 161.9, but almost all of his ing attempts came against FCS Virginia Military and FCS Elon. Wake also no longer has Perry, last year’s leading receiver, to target. Griffis still helped the Deacons put 37 points on the board against Elon in Week 1, but Vanderbilt put up 42 against that FCS program last season.
Neither team has done much defensively. Vanderbilt ranked an atrocious 128th in yards allowed per play (6.8) last season. Wake ranked 83rd (5.7). The ‘Dores currently rank 67th in yards allowed per play (6.2) this year, which doesn’t count their game against FCS Alabama A&M, who they held to only 4.1 yards per play. Wake hasn’t faced an FBS opponent this year but held FCS Elon to 3.9 yards per play. This Wake defense looks much different from the one that stifled Vanderbilt last year — leading tackler Ryan Smenda Jr. is gone, as are the team’s leaders in es defended, Gavin Holmes and J.J. Roberts.
While I still give Wake an advantage on defense, I don’t think their offense is so much better than Vanderbilt’s as to warrant this wide of a spread. Vanderbilt averaged five yards per play against Hawaii and 7.1 against FCS Alabama A&M. Wake averaged 5.7 against FCS Elon. Unlike Wake, Vanderbilt retained key personnel in quarterback A.J. Swann, who completed 72.7% of his es against the Deacons for 13.3 yards per attempt and two scores, along with wide receivers Will Sheppard and Jayden McGowan, who tallied 101 yards and a score against the Deacons a year ago.
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We bought Vandy at +11.5 in the early week column, so we’ve already secured some closing line value (CLV) for Saturday’s early contest. According to Pregame, 51% of the cash has come in on Vanderbilt on only 36% of the tickets, which suggests sharp action is on the ‘Dores to cover. Some books have already cut the spread to 9.5. Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists Vanderbilt as a 10-point favorite with the juice stacked on the ‘Dores, which means the +10 at -110 (52.1%) on FanDuel is a solid deal that will likely disappear before kickoff. I only advise playing this over the key number of 10, so don’t bite if you can’t find the +10 anywhere.
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Vanderbilt-Wake Forest Week 2 Pick & Prediction: Vanderbilt +10 -110 at FanDuel
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