The No. 15 Kansas State Wildcats will host the plucky Troy Trojans from the Sun Belt on Saturday. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 2 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Troy-Kansas State betting odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 2 bet!
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Troy-Kansas State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 2
Troy-Kansas State Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Troy: +550 | Kansas State: -820
Troy +14.5: -105 | Kansas State -14.5: -115
Over 51.5: -104 | Under 51.5: -118
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Troy-Kansas State Pick & Prediction
The Troy Trojans will visit the No. 15 Kansas State Wildcats on Saturday, and they are nearly a three-score road underdog for the matchup. That’s a little disrespectful to the reigning Sun Belt champs. Although Kansas State deserves plenty of credit for winning the Big 12 last season, the offseason was deeply unkind to them. In contrast, an already-good Troy team used the offseason to get better. The Trojans opened the year as one of the favorites to win the Sun Belt, and they should keep Saturday’s trip to Manhattan, Kan. more competitive than the books expect.
Let’s start with the offseason. Kansas State lost a number of key personnel, including defensive end Felix Anudike-Uzomah, who led the team in tackles for loss (11) and sacks (8.5), along with defensive backs Julius Brents and Josh Hayes, who combined for four interceptions, 11 es defended and eight tackles for loss. Leading rusher Deuce Vaughn is gone, too. Troy lost FBS all-time leading tackler Carlton Martial but got three-star JUCO recruit Steven Cattledge to replace him. The Trojans shored up their offensive line by adding center Eli Russ (Oklahoma State), who just helped running back Kimani Vidal explode for 248 yards on 25 carries against FCS Stephen F. Austin in Week 1.
Troy is a balanced team that will be hard to beat by such a wide margin. The Trojans ranked 55th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index last season, coming in 82nd on offense and 27th on defense. Although Kansas State ranked 10th, 19th on offense and 19th on defense, their offseason departures leave them ill-equipped to blow out Troy. The Wildcats shut down FCS Southeast Missouri State in Week 1, averaging 8.3 yards per play while surrendering only 3.6, but they’ll have to grapple with a much tougher opponent in Week 2. Troy didn’t shut out FCS Stephen F. Austin, largely because of some ill-timed turnovers, but the Trojans gained 8.4 yards per play while allowing only 4.1.
The Wildcats are good, but they’re not three-score favorites over the Trojans good. Troy went 12-2 last season after a dismal 1-2 start. Their two losses came against Ole Miss by 18 points and App State by four. Troy went 11-3 (78.6%) against the spread in the process, slightly better than 9-4-1 (69.2%) Kansas State. However, the Trojans were also a perfect 4-0 as road underdogs. The Trojans may not contend for the upset on Saturday, but their roster is constructed well enough such that they should keep this within two touchdowns.
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We bought Troy as a 16.5-point underdog in the early week column. That number is now off the board. After briefly trending toward Kansas State, the market has picked up action on Troy, and the Trojans range from 14.5 to 15.5-point favorites. I feel comfortable buying anything over the key number of 14. Pregame reports that Troy has picked up 54% of the cash on only 28% of the tickets, which suggests that almost all of the action coming in on Troy is sharp. Let’s ride with the smart bettors and get some action down on the Trojans to cover.
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Troy-Kansas State Week 2 Pick: Troy +15.5 -110 at DraftKings
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