Midweek college football rolls on with another CUSA battle, this one between the winless Sam Houston State Bearkats and the .500 New Mexico State Aggies. This is a crucial spot for the Aggies if they want to get back to a bowl game. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 7 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Sam Houston State-New Mexico State odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 7 bet!
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 7
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State Betting Odds
Odds via Bet365
Sam Houston St: +150 | NMSU: -170
Sam Houston St +3.5: -110 | NMSU -3.5: -110
Over 42.5: -110 | Under 42.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Time: Wednesday, Oct. 11 at 9 p.m. ET
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State Pick & Prediction
Dear God. Two of the FBS’ absolute worst teams will square off on Wednesday night, and I sincerely hope that you have something better to do than watch — or bet on — this game. I don’t, though, which is why I put the New Mexico State Aggies in my moneyline round-robin for this week. The Sam Houston State Bearkats are an absolute joke: they rank 133rd on offense in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) and 132nd in yards per play (3.8). The Bearkats run a slow-paced but balanced offensive scheme and lean on their defense, which is far better than their offense, to win. It hasn’t worked against anyone yet this season, though, and they are now 0-5.
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New Mexico State isn’t good, but there are at least some signs of life on this team. Quarterback Diego Pavia ranks eighth in yards per attempt (10.4) and 13th in ing efficiency (174.4). Their offense may rank only 115th in the FEI, but the Aggies are seventh in yards per play (7.1). Further, unlike the Bearkats, the Aggies have actually won games this year. After suffering a brutal Week 0 loss to UMass, New Mexico State has taken down FCS Western Illinois, New Mexico and Florida International so far. They are 2-1 at home and 6-3 at home under head coach Jerry Kill. Kill is 5-2 as a home favorite, which isn’t great, but considering Sam Houston State is yet to win a game this year, it’s not terrible.
The books put the spread for this one at just 3.5, with New Mexico State listed at -170 on the moneyline. I’m not sure what anyone has seen out of Sam Houston State thus far to justify listing them at that number. Sure, they almost knocked off Jacksonville State before a massive second-half and overtime collapse, and sure, they challenged Liberty early before collapsing after the first quarter, but neither of those performances gives me any confidence in their ability to win or cover. Sam Houston State’s inability to move the ball on offense will keep them winless for another week.
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The best number for our Wednesday night wager is available at DraftKings, and only they and Bet365 appear to be offering it. We’re wagering on New Mexico State’s team total, which is set to only 23.5 at both books. You’ll find the over priced at -105 on DraftKings. New Mexico State is averaging 25 points per game and 32 points per game at home. The Aggies have gone over this number in four of their six games, only failing to do so on the road. Sam Houston State is coughing up 24.2 points per game, surrendering more than this number just twice, but the Bearkats’ struggles to stop opposing rushing attacks and their own inability to move the football should help the Aggies cash their over.
Sam Houston State-New Mexico State Week 7 Pick: NMSU Team Total Over 23.5 -105 at DraftKings
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