We may have an NFL installment of Thursday Night Football this week, but the college football matchup between the Georgia State Wildcats and Coastal Carolina Chanticleers is the better game to watch. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Georgia State-Coastal Carolina odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Georgia State-Coastal Carolina Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Georgia State-Coastal Carolina Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Georgia State: +215 | Coastal: -260
Georgia State +6.5: -106 | Coastal -6.5: -114
Over 62.5: -110 | Under 62.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Georgia State-Coastal Carolina Pick & Prediction
The Georgia State Wildcats will visit the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers in a crucial Sun Belt battle. I was high on both of these teams this year, but the Wildcats have done more to live up to my expectations than the Chants. Georgia State’s offense has opened the year 24th in yards per play (6.7) led by a strong effort from quarterback Darren Grainger, who ranks 11th in ing efficiency (183.9) while averaging 10.2 yards per attempt. This kind of production isn’t sustainable, but his 149.8 career ing efficiency grade suggests he isn’t outperforming the mean by that much.
Grainger lines up against the current single-season record-holder for ing efficiency, Grayson McCall. McCall and the Chants haven’t gotten off to as good of a start this year. They rank 86th in yards per play (4.7) while McCall ranks just 54th in ing efficiency (147.9). That number is well below his career average (183) but is consistent with a downward trend we’ve seen in his production over the last two years, through which the Chants have lost key personnel like tight end Isaiah Likely, running back Shermari Jones and head coach Jamey Chadwell.
Neither of these teams has looked good defensively. The Chants rank 97th in yards per play allowed (6), which you could forgive them for since they played UCLA, but they allowed 5.4 yards per play to Jacksonville State and 5.6 to FCS Duquesne. Coastal ranks a dreadful 104th defensively in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI) through Week 3. Georgia State ranks a solid 43rd in yards allowed per play (4.9), although their schedule of FCS Rhode Island, Connecticut and Charlotte isn’t all that impressive. Still, they’ve done well enough to rank 89th defensively in the FEI.
The books have set the total for this one all the way up at 62.5, which makes some sense given these teams’ poor defenses, but let’s not forget that Coastal runs a slow-paced offense that currently ranks 80th in seconds per play (26.9). Georgia State’s run-heavy scheme ranks 40th (24.6). I’m not going to advise playing the total for Thursday’s game, but Georgia State’s offense and Coastal’s below-average pace should help the Wildcats keep this one within a score. Georgia State is a plucky 18-14-3 against the spread (ATS) on the road under head coach Shawn Elliott, and the Wildcats are 10-3 ATS on the road since 2021.
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The line for Thursday’s Georgia State-Coastal game opened with the Chants listed as a full touchdown favorite, but it ticked down before the DraftKings to cover the 6.5. Pinnacle, a sharp book, still has Coastal listed as a 7-point favorite, and Georgia State is still +100 to cover the 6.5 there. Still, with Pregame reporting that Georgia State has taken 63% of the cash on 59% of the tickets, I’m riding with the Wildcats to keep this within seven down to -110.
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Georgia State-Coastal Carolina Week 4 Pick: Georgia State +6.5 -106 at FanDuel
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