We’re diving right back into some college football best bets after snapping a seven-pick win streak yesterday. Don’t worry — we’re building it back starting tonight, and I have an Ohio-Toledo pick I really like. Be sure to head to OddsShopper for more FREE CFB picks, +EV college football bets!
Free College Football Expert Pick Today: Ohio-Toledo
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Free CFB Expert Pick: Toledo -1.5 vs. Ohio
We have a crucial matchup in the MAC between two of the conference’s top teams. Ohio enters this one at 5-1 in conference play, while Toledo sits at 4-2. Both teams are 7-3 overall, and this game has serious implications.
Ohio is a run-first team, plain and simple. It has one of the most effective rushing attacks in the country, and if it is able to control the ground game, it is incredibly tough to beat. However, if you force it into ing situations, it is likely to struggle. On the defensive side, Ohio is about average — nothing that stands out as particularly special. It is a team built on running the ball and doing it well.
Toledo is more balanced, and it has proven it can handle quality opponents. Earlier this season, it pounded Mississippi State. Yes, that’s the worst team in the SEC, but it’s still a big deal for a MAC program. It has had some hiccups like a bad loss to Buffalo, but it also beat Miami of Ohio, one of the top teams in the conference.
What I like most about Toledo is how well it matches up against Ohio. Toledo doesn’t run the ball much, but it’s elite at stopping the run — ranking in the top 25 in rushing yards allowed per attempt. Combine that with the fact that it’s at home in the Glass Bowl, where it’s significantly better, and it’s a strong setup for the Rockets.
Toledo’s injury report is long, but the key players are not affected. A few guys with questionable tags might sit, but I’m not overly concerned here.
For me, this boils down to matchups. Toledo’s ability to stop the run is the perfect counter to what Ohio wants to do. If it can neutralize the Bobcats’ rushing attack, it should control this game and cover the 1.5-point spread. Add in the homefield advantage, and I’m confident in this play.
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