The NBA is in full effect on Martin Luther King Day. The slate starts at noon ET and runs through West Coast action in the evening. We get another crack at beating the market with a wide range of start times, but for the purposes of this column, we’ll focus on tonight. There are a couple of games starting later on the East Coast, with the Pelicans 11-point home favorites against the Jazz. Later, the Clippers host the Bulls — each team on the second leg of a back-to-back. Here are your top NBA player prop picks for Monday night!
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Monday, Jan. 20
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
There are a decent number of player props already up for the later games, starting with three handpicked selections at the top. The NBA is a different beast, at least with injuries. Morning closing line value can vanish, turning against you in a matter of one announcement that a star player is “resting.” Whatever the reasons, it doesn’t change the necessary approach of still seeking out the best plays, the ones that return more than their true value.
Let’s look at James Harden under 8.5 assists as our top play. It’s currently +105 on DraftKings, yet the true odds are -103. We are getting a positive return on a bet that should cost us 3 cents. That small difference provides a massive edge over time. There are a bunch of reasons why Harden can stay below this number against the Bulls, but none of that matters if the price is off.
The rest of the market is slowly catching up, but outside of Hard Rock (not in my state), no other book is giving you this type of deal. Harden might be a little sluggish on the second straight night of action, the Bulls may lag off him taking away some ing lanes, the guys around Harden might simply be off tonight. Any of those reasons work. What doesn’t work is paying -113 or worse for a bet that’s offered at +105.
The Pelicans host the Jazz tonight, where people are already questioning Utah’s commitment to win. Anyone paying attention knows there’s a legit tank going on, so starters on the other team may see limited action. If that’s the pathway to taking Trey Murphy III staying below 5.5 rebounds, so be it. But now you need to find the right cost of this ticket, “right” meaning the return is better than the true odds.
Portfolio EV did that with Harden and Josh Giddey too. There are multiple ways to use our tools with the result being the same — a long-term path to profit. I didn’t need an hour or two to break down what any of these three players have done over their last five or 10 games. It ultimately doesn’t matter. Neither does my analysis for Harden or Murphy.
The stone-cold truth is that you don’t need a shred of analysis to beat the market and turn a profit. You just need accurate and dependable tools, ones that show proven results in a separate tab. I documented 60 units this year in the WNBA off Portfolio EV, and I can promise you I watched little to no action. It was because of nothing else than time I have each day.
You are better off getting down 100-plus bets off our tools than researching 10 to 15 plays on your own. Use what’s available, even within the actual process. Nothing illustrates that better than the historical return on investment (HROI). Harden’s play returns a HROI more than double the other two players. That’s a combo of betting market and book. It’s also an indicator to stay away from bets that are returning anything in the negative.
If you like parlays, check me out on X as I document a road to 100 units in the NBA — using our tools to build +EV parlays. The reason I made 100 units in the first 60 days of the season, and why I’m up another 15 units this month, is due to betting straights. There isn’t a single parlay I place without betting the individual legs first.
