We’re still early in the college football season. There are plenty of non-conference games left to be played, but as we advance toward October, conference standings are starting to take shape. We’ve got a number of consequential games this week, especially Georgia at Alabama. So, let’s dive into the early college football odds for Week 5, as well as a free college football Week 5 expert pick. If you need more college football betting strategy.
College Football Week 5 Expert Picks & Early Odds
College Football Week 5 Expert Picks & Early Odds
What We Learned in Week 4…
Read all of my notes on Week 4, expected points added over average (EPAOA) and ing efficiency here.
1. Utah will be a problem with a healthy Cam Rising. The Utes were basically a pick’em (the line moved from +2.5 to -2.5 throughout the week) versus Oklahoma State in Stillwater. Rising’s uncertain status was a large part of why, and we didn’t know he wasn’t playing until Utah’s first offensive play.
Despite Rising’s absence, the Utes won, 22-19 — but the game was never really that close. Utah was up 22-3 with less than six minutes left in the fourth quarter before a pair of quick scores from the Pokes. Despite Oklahoma State’s late-game rally, Utah also won the yardage battle, 456 to 285.
2. Several teams don’t have quarterbacks. Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and Auburn all benched their starting quarterbacks at the half. Oklahoma has already pivoted away from last week’s starter, Jackson Arnold. Although the Pokes and Tigers are yet to announce a move, at this point, Alan Bowman and Payton Thorne are known commodities.
These quarterback moves came a week after South Carolina opted to start Robby Ashford and Michigan opted to start Alex Orji, two moves that worked out fantastically. They’re a good reminder that we need to approach teams with uncertain quarterback situations with a lot of caution.
3. Washington State’s offense can do anything. I’m serious. Over the last two weeks, Wazzu’s offense has outproduced Washington in the Apple Cup and led a dramatic overtime win over San Jose State.
To even force overtime against SJSU, quarterback John Mateer had to lead a game-tying field-goal drive with 1:36 left. This was an absolute game of the year candidate.
Don’t believe me? Take a look at this win probability chart (or, you know, go back and watch the fourth quarter/overtime or this video essay yourself):
4. Michigan isn’t as bad as most people thought. Although the Wolverines were a popular fade among the public this week, sharp money bid the line up from Michigan +6 to Michigan +4 by kickoff. Although sharp money isn’t always right (Oklahoma saw a similar trend this week), it’s right more often than not.
The quarterback change made an instant impact. Alex Orji may not be a great er, has his ing efficiency score (114.2) is barely ahead of Davis Warren’s (111), but he adds an element on the ground that Warren does not that keeps opposing defenses honest. Still, running backs Kalel Mullings and Donovan Edwards stole the show.
5. Vanderbilt might be for real. The Commodores forced overtime against the Missouri Tigers this week, and while they couldn’t hold on to win, they actually beat the Tigers in net EPA per play. Unfortunately, a penalty yardage difference of 60 in Missouri’s favor and a missed field goal cost them the upset.
Still, give quarterback Diego Pavia his flowers. He ranks a solid 38th in ing efficiency (158.1) with 69.8 rushing yards per game. Pavia was slightly worse in of ing efficiency (147.1) and rushing yards per game (61.5) at New Mexico State last year, but the Aggies still went 10-3 (yes, they played 13 regular-season games) with conference title and bowl game appearances.
Early College Football Odds for Week 5
Let’s look at some of the college football odds at BetMGM for Week 5’s most significant games. An asterisk indicates a neutral-site game.
Kentucky @ Ole Miss
Spread: Ole Miss -17.5
Total: O/U 52.5
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State
Spread: Kansas State -3
Total: O/U 55.5
Arkansas @ Texas A&M*
Spread: Texas A&M -4
Total: O/U 52.5
Illinois @ Penn State
Spread: Penn State -17.5
Total: O/U 47.5
Minnesota @ Michigan
Spread: Michigan -9.5
Total: O/U 35.5
Louisville @ Notre Dame
Spread: Notre Dame -6
Total: O/U 45.5
Georgia @ Alabama
Spread: Georgia -1.5
Total: O/U 56.5
Arizona @ Utah
Spread: -11.5
Total: O/U 48.5
College Football Expert Picks for Week 5: TCU @ Kansas
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or click here for Isaiah’s Free Pick on X!
Things were headed in the right direction for TCU and Kansas — until they weren’t. TCU made a national championship game appearance just two seasons ago. Kansas went on a remarkable 9-4 run last season just one year after head coach Lance Leipold earned the program its first bowl appearance since 2008.
But for all the progress these teams made in recent seasons, things have begun to come unglued. TCU failed to make a bowl last year after a devastating Week 1 loss to Colorado. The Frogs are now just 2-2 after losses to UCF and cross-town rival SMU.
On the other side, Kansas sits at 1-3. The Jayhawks throttled FCS Lindenwood in Week 1 but have since lost one-possession games to West Virginia, Illinois and UNLV. They’re 2.5-point favorites this week in what should be another nailbiter.
That said, it’s pretty easy to land on TCU in this spot. Their quarterback, Josh Hoover, ranks 30th in ing efficiency (162) and is fourth in ing yards per game (354.5). TCU’s ing offense ranks a clean 24th in EPA per dropback.
Meanwhile, Kansas’ quarterback, Jalon Daniels, is off to a brutal start. He ranks 113th in efficiency (110.2) and 97th in ing yards per game (156.5). Kansas’ offense is a dreadful 101st in EPA per dropback to boot.
While it’s a home game for the Jayhawks, they’re only 11-9-1 ATS since Lance Leipold arrived in 2021. With the Jayhawks already down to 1-3, I’m skeptical about how much home-field advantage they’ll actually get. I make TCU a favorite on a neutral site, and they should be a pick’em at worst in Lawrence this week. Lock them in as moneyline dogs for +110 at Caesars.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 5: TCU ML +110 at Caesars
