It may be hard to believe, but we’re already a quarter of the way done with the college football regular season. Teams have played three of their 12 regular season games, giving us plenty of data to work with on the betting markets. Let’s dive into the early college football odds for Week 4 — as well as a free college football Week 4 expert pick. If you need more college football betting strategy.
College Football Week 4 Expert Picks & Early Odds
College Football Week 4 Expert Picks & Early Odds
What We Learned in Week 3…
Read all of my notes on Week 3 and expected points added over average (EPAOA) here.
1. Oklahoma is not good at football. If we didn’t already learn this in Week 2 versus Houston, the Sooners reminded us in Week 3. Although the box score paints a different picture (and they did cover the spread), let’s look under the hood.
In a 34-19 win, Oklahoma outgained Tulane 349-279, which paints a much closer picture. Tulane’s nine penalties for 60 yards and two turnovers (three including a crucial turnover on downs) bailed the Sooners out of some tough spots.
2. UCF’s offense is a huge problem. Although the Knights won by only a point, they were able to rally from a 21-point deficit at the start of the third quarter. They scored four touchdowns while giving up only two field goals.
Importantly, they did it without shifting away from their run-heavy offensive identity. UCF tallied 289 rushing yards (5.4 per attempt), with running back RJ Harvey (18) and quarterback KJ Jefferson (46) leading the way.
3. All isn’t well in Athens. Georgia’s offense has been on a downward trajectory in of yards per play. The Dawgs are averaging 6.2 now, but they averaged 7.1 at the end of 2023 and 7.2 at the end of 2024.
Georgia has played Clemson, FCS Tennessee Tech and Kentucky so far, which may skew those numbers, but there is a real cause for concern here with a road trip to Alabama up next.
4. UCLA might be the worst Power 5 team right now. Sure, Indiana looks good under head coach Curt Cignetti, but this team has been awful all season. The Bruins opened the year with a near-loss to the Rainbow Warriors, got a week off, then were bulldozed by the Hoosiers.
It’s a road trip to Baton Rouge up next for the Bruins, and if the first two games are any indication, UCLA is going to get dismembered. They are 24-point road dogs. Indiana beat them by 29 in the Rose Bowl last week.
5. Cal is a prime fade candidate. After three weeks, the Golden Bears are 3-0 with wins over FCS UC Davis (perhaps not FCS for long, though), Auburn (lol) and San Diego State.
But also after three weeks, Cal sports the worst offensive EPAOA in the ACC at -0.19 (this is also third worst in the Power 4, edging only Kentucky and Houston). They are only two-point road dogs to Florida State this week.
Early College Football Odds for Week 4
Let’s look at some of the college football odds at BetMGM for Week 4’s most significant games. An asterisk indicates a neutral-site game, of which there are none in the FBS this week.
Illinois @ Nebraska
Spread: Nebraska -9
Total: O/U 42.5
Florida @ Mississippi State
Spread: Florida -6
Total: O/U 47
Arkansas @ Auburn
Spread: Auburn -3
Total: O/U 58
Utah @ Oklahoma State
Spread: Utah -2.5
Total: O/U 53.5
NC State @ Clemson
Spread: Clemson -20.5
Total: O/U 47
USC @ Michigan
Spread: USC -6
Total: O/U 46.5
UCLA @ LSU
Spread: LSU -24.5
Total: O/U 56.5
Tennessee @ Oklahoma
Spread: -7.5
Total: O/U 57.5
College Football Expert Picks for Week 4: California @ Florida State
Check out our expert picks page for all of today’s free plays — or click here for Isaiah’s Free Pick on X!
Look, I get it. The Florida State Seminoles are not that good at football. Quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei was bad at Clemson before being bad at Oregon State and now being bad at Florida State. Everyone knows these things, including the market. No one wants to bet on Florida State right now. That’s exactly why we must.
On the other side, it’s the meme team of the century, the Cal Golden Bears. Their comedic win over Auburn has prompted quality clownery in the form of taunting billboards in Atlanta. They somehow even have the fourth-best odds to win the ACC right now at +2200.
Unfortunately for Cal, nothing gold can stay, and the same is true of the Golden Bears’ unblemished record. The only thing Cal has done well this season is defend the , which, honestly, doesn’t give them much of an advantage against DJU. He already can’t throw.
Despite playing from behind pretty much all season, Florida State has thrown the football only 50% of the time. The Noles are averaging only 2.2 yards per rush attempt, but much of that comes down to sacks taken by Uiagalelei, who -14 rushing yards on 23 attempts.
The books are giving us the discount of the year by setting Florida State’s moneyline odds as low as -125 at BetMGM. Pinnacle, a sharp book, is charging -133 for the same bet because they cater to sharper clientele. This sets up as a classic Pros-versus-Joes spot. It might get ugly, but the Noles win more than 55.6% of the time.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 4: Florida State ML -125 at BetMGM
