After a solid Week 1 showing, I had a brutal performance in Week 2. While I personally made some money with unofficial parlays and live plays, it was not a good day for anything we tracked, including the Navy-Temple under I featured in this column last week (two 60-plus yard TDs will do that!). Regardless, it’s time to rally, so let’s dive into the early college football odds for Week 3 — as well as a free college football Week 3 expert pick. If you need more college football +EV betting.
College Football Week 3 Expert Picks & Early Odds
College Football Week 3 Expert Picks & Early Odds
What We Learned in Week 2…
1. Oklahoma State is a fraud. Seriously, how is this team ranked? How did the Cowboys improve three spots after nearly losing to unranked Arkansas? Sure, it was an impressive rally, but I’m very skepitcal.
Oklahoma State is one of the worst Big 12 teams by expected points added (EPA) over average on both sides of the ball. I don’t believe in quarterback Alan Bowman.
The Cowboys visit Tulsa (+20.5) this week. We haven’t seen this rivalry played since 2021, and the Cowboys are 9-0 since 1998. If the Golden Wave do something crazy, it’ll really feel like 1998, Tennessee fans.
2. Oregon should bounce back. Speaking of frauds, this Oregon team has almost lost to FCS Idaho State and Boise State in consecutive weekends. Transfer quarterback Dillon Gabriel has been good, but not much else has worked for the Ducks.
But I think they’ll bounce back because Gabriel isn’t the problem. He sports a ing efficiency grade of 177.9 so far. He has completed 84.3% of his throws, too. Those are great signs.
Bo Nix recorded a slightly better grade last year (188.3) but looked worse through the opening two games by ing efficiency (177.1) and completion percentage (77.5%).
3. Michigan and Notre Dame are cooked. For Michigan, quarterback Davis Warren (111.5 ing efficiency grade) has struggled. For Notre Dame, the same is true of Riley Leonard (98.3).
It’s hard to envision either side turning things around barring major improvements under center — or a quarterback change. Michigan hosts Arkansas State (+23) this week while Notre Dame visits Purdue (+10.5).
4. Syracuse looks pretty good. Although quarterback Kyle McCord didn’t work out at Ohio State, he sports a respectable ing efficiency grade (170.8) after facing Ohio and Georgia Tech.
The Orange are 3-0 heading into an early bye. They’ll get to host Stanford in Week 4. No time like the present to buy Syracuse futures — if you’re a believer.
5. Kentucky may not have an offense. This team should improve as players get healthy, but that won’t change the problem under center. The offensive line needs some serious help, too.
Quarterback Brock Vandagriff has a 134.3 ing efficiency grade through two games, including Southern Miss. If we look only at his numbers versus South Carolina, that drops to… 35.2. Woof.
Early College Football Odds for Week 3
Let’s look at some of the college football odds at BetMGM for Week 3’s most significant games. An asterisk indicates a neutral-site game.
Arizona @ Kansas State
Spread: Kansas State -7
Total: O/U 58.5
Boston College @ Missouri
Spread: Missouri -16.5
Total: O/U 54
Texas A&M @ Florida
Spread: Texas A&M -4.5
Total: O/U 46.5
Georgia @ Kentucky
Spread: Georgia -24
Total: O/U 45.5
Alabama @ Wisconsin
Spread: Alabama -15.5
Total: O/U 50.5
Oregon @ Oregon State
Spread: Oregon -16.5
Total: O/U 50.5
Washington @ Washington State*
Spread: Washington -4.5
Total: O/U 56.5
Indiana @ UCLA
Spread: OFF
Total: O/U 46.5
College Football Expert Picks for Week 3: Boston College at Missouri
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Let’s turn to one of the few ranked matchups this weekend for our top early college football bet. The Boston College Eagles will visit the Missouri Tigers this weekend, and the road team is trading as a 16.5-point dog. While I’d probably bump that up by a point or two, I’m more interested in the total.
You’ll find the total trading at 54.5 for this game, which is more than a little high for how these offenses operate. Under new head coach Bill O’Brien, the Eagles have run 73.4% of the time while chewing up 33.1 seconds per play.
Meanwhile, Missouri has run only 49.4% of the time but is averaging 27.7 seconds per play. That’s slightly slower than last year (26.5), but, interestingly, they’ve been running at a much lower clip (55.1%).
The 54.5 just feels a bit high for two slow-paced, run-focused offenses. It feels more than a bit high when you look under the hood of these defenses.
Missouri may not have played a real team yet, but their defense leads the NCAA in EPA over average, and I’m buying into the hype. Meanwhile, Boston College’s defense leads the ACC in the metric despite the early matchup with Florida State.
Saturday’s game between the Tigers and the Eagles profiles as a much lower-scoring affair than the books would have you believe. Lock in the under 54.5 early.
College Football Expert Pick for Week 3: Under 54.5 at FanDuel
