The College Football National Championship finally kicks off on Monday, and CFB props.
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CFB Props PrizePicks: College Football National Championship
Quentin Johnston Under 85.5 Receiving Yards
Quentin Johnston’s receiving line is already down from the 88.5 where it opened, but this prop still provides value to the under. While Johnston battled injury during the latter portion of the season, he still averaged 81.8 yards receiving per game on 7.3 targets. Johnston also enters this game fresh off a six-catch, 163-yard performance against Michigan.
However, like much of the season, Johnston failed to reach double-digit targets in that game. He finished with 163 yards on the back of a 76-yard broken play that went for a touchdown. Now, Johnston does bring massive upside, including games with 14 and 17 targets this year. However, in every other game, Johnston failed to reach double-digit targets.
On the year, he logged a pedestrian target share of 23%. Facing a strong Georgia defense, and with TCU implied for just 25.25 points as a 12.5-point underdog, Johnston projects just below his season average. Stokastic has him for 72.5 yards.
Kenny McIntosh Over 64.5 Rushing Yards
Georgia is a 12.5-point favorite in a game with a 63 total, so game script already projects to work in favor of its rushing attack. It just so happens that the largest mismatch in the entire game also benefits the Georgia rushers. The Bulldogs rank top 10 in blocking and run blocking, while the TCU defensive line ranks 95th in rate of at or behind the line of scrimmage.
With Georgia’s rushing attack already in a good spot, Kenny McIntosh saw an increased role in the College Football Playoff semifinal, out-snapping Daijun Edwards 37 to 15. It should be noted that McIntosh only carried five times. However, he rushed for 56 yards, creating explosive plays every time he touched the ball. Georgia also trailed early in that game, leading to more attempts than usual for the Bulldogs.
With Georgia showing a willingness to increase McIntosh’s workload in competitive games, over 64.5 yards rushing looks solid here. In fact, looking over on Edwards could also make some sense too. Even in a limited role of just 15 snaps, Edwards still received eight carries for Georgia against Ohio State. On the back end, McIntosh projects for 76.6 yards rushing and Edwards comes in at 60.3, giving both value to the over.
Taye Barber Over 33.5 Receiving Yards
While the game factors mentioned above work against Johnston at an elevated prop, Taye Barber shows some value on the over in this game environment. For reference, 85.5 yards is high for a receiving prop when Max Duggan is listed for only 235.5 yards ing. Mathematically, it doesn’t make much sense for a receiver logging only a 23% target share.
However, Barber’s 33.5 yards receiving look far more reasonable in this spot. Playing primarily in the slot, Barber should avoid the coverage of Georgia’s better corners more often than Johnston will. He also already averages 43.2 yards receiving per game on 3.6 targets. Barber has also seen his route rate rise to 69% in TCU’s most recent game, coming at the expense of fellow slot receiver, Derius Davis.
Despite the limited team total likely capping TCU’s ing yardage, the Horned Frogs still project to frequently as double-digit underdogs. Stokastic’s projections peg Barber for 39.6 yards.
Brock Bowers Over 60.5 Receiving Yards
Brock Bowers over 60.5 yards receiving could make some sense here as well, though this is a bit more narrative driven than the props listed above. Bowers only averaged 56.5 yards receiving per game on 5.4 targets this year. However, with Georgia playing an easier schedule in the SEC East, Bowers often departed blowouts early. In competitive games, Georgia has shown a willingness to increase Bowers’ workload. This includes a route rate of at least 90% in five straight games for the Bulldogs.
Bowers only saw five targets against Ohio State, but reports leaked during the game that Bowers played through an illness. A week removed, Bowers figures to be fully healthy here.
TCU’s defense thrives through their two boundary corners Tre’Vius Hodges-Tomlinson and Josh Newton. Bowers lined up in the slot 49.2% of the time and inline 38.5% of the time. This means he should run a majority of his routes away from TCU’s top coverage defenders, potentially funneling targets to the premier tight end. While Bowers only projects for 62 yards receiving on the back end, a story can easily be told where he smashes this number.
