College football brings another huge slate of games for Week 4. Conference games are set to begin, which means more marquee matchups and some big-time schools squaring off. There is still plenty of season left, but already teams are in must-win mode across the country. From a betting standpoint, there are a ton of potential plays on this gigantic Saturday slate, so it’s crucial to stay on top of news and line movement as best you can. Capturing some closing line value or being on top of the info can make the difference between winning and losing weeks. With that in mind, let’s dive into some guide to college football +EV betting.
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College Football Expert Picks Today for Week 4: Saturday, Sept. 21
Best Game: USC at Michigan | College Football Expert Picks Today
I hope from a viewing standpoint this isn’t a good game, but there’s no doubt when historic programs like USC and Michigan meet it’s a big deal. USC is a 5-point road favorite, and despite the hostile environment, that’s the side I have interest in. After a big win against LSU, the Trojans crushed Utah State 48-0 to move to 2-0.
Michigan already had an opportunity on the national stage when Texas came into the big house. The result was a decisive 31-12 loss for the Wolverines, and with that came a lot of questions. Due to the lack of offense, Michigan has now turned to Alex Orji at quarterback, and that should mean even less of a ing threat. Adding to the problems, his best weapon in Colston Loveland is in jeopardy of missing this game with an injury. Orji has great dual-threat ability, but I do not trust him if Michigan falls behind and he has to throw.
Any time a team goes into Michigan it’s a challenge, but USC is equipped to handle this and move to 3-0 on the season. The defense has made incredible progress with the change at defensive coordinator, and Miller Moss leads an offense that can have success against Michigan. I will lay the 5 points and can handle USC at anything inside 7 points in this spot.
Live Dog: Temple +132 vs. Utah State | College Football Expert Picks
This is absolutely the next level, so if you can’t handle an extremely greasy, low-level game, then just keep scrolling for another blue-blood matchup. However, if you are willing to roll the dice, it’s pretty simple because Utah State should not be a road favorite over practically anyone.
Temple is 0-3, but to its credit, it played three real opponents to start the season. Oklahoma, Navy and Coastal Carolina all have shown some potential, so this is clearly the Owls’ best opportunity so far. They would have enough problems on their own, but one thing to note is there are a ton of guys injured on this team, including quarterback Forrest Brock. Although there is not clarity on the situation, assume that a handful will miss and some will play. That’s enough for me since I trust the backup quarterback in former Rutgers player Evan Simon.
Entertaining the moneyline with an 0-3 Temple team is due to really not liking Utah State this season. The Aggies are 1-2 with the lone win coming against an FCS opponent in Robert Morris. The two losses are to USC and Utah, which aren’t anything to be upset about, but I still have minimal belief in this team. Like Temple, its quarterback questionable after missing the last game. Regardless of who is under center, this team has a ton of questions on both sides of the ball. It’s a high-variance game due to both teams’ issues, but if you are giving me almost 2-1 with the home team in Temple, I’ll gladly roll the dice.
Best College Football Expert Pick: Tennessee -6.5 (-118) vs. Oklahoma
This is an awesome game as Tennessee hits the road to Norman to take on Oklahoma in a new SEC clash. Right off the bat, make sure you shop this number, as there are 6.5’s out there, and that’s the spot we want to target. The Volunteers come into town destroying everyone in their path, and although this is the toughest challenge, they will keep it rolling.
Tennessee has scored 50-plus points in all three games and last week somehow had 65 points in the first half against Kent State. I don’t care who you are playing; that’s almost impossible to do and right now nobody can stop this offense. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has answered every challenge, and due to blowouts, this entire team is well rested. It plays at extreme tempo, and I do not see anything about their gameplan changing on the road here against Oklahoma.
The Sooners also are 3-0 but have been far less impressive than what Tennessee has done. The season started with a 51-3 thrashing of Temple, but a 16-12 win over Houston and a 15-point win over Tulane are a little shaky. The thing that concerns me with Oklahoma is the injury situation, as it’s gravitated towards two key positions. quarterback Jackson Arnold will be without 2 key wide receivers, and two more are still sitting with injury tags even if they ultimately play. Similarly, the offensive line is without two key pieces. Tennessee is not a defensive juggernaut, but when a team is down multiple pieces and needs to keep pace to stay in games, this is not an ideal spot.
I already thought Tennessee was the better team here, but the injury situation solidified my position. I’ll call for the Vols to go into Norman and emerge with a big-time win.
