Each week of the college football season has delivered game-changing outcomes shaping the playoff picture. This weekend, the Big Ten takes center stage with a huge clash between Indiana and Ohio State, but BYU-Arizona State is also a sneakily high-stakes matchup. We’ll start there for Underdog value and hit one other spot as well. Here are your top Week 13 CFB Underdog Optimizer.
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Sam Leavitt Less Than 25.5 Rushing Yards
This projection is fairly suppressed on a guy who is averaging close to 40 yards rushing per game, but it makes some sense given the game environment. Though BYU has only a middling run defense, the total for this game is relatively low in the 49 range.
Leavitt has gone for more than 25.5 yards in five of nine games this year, but only one of those came in the last month. A closer spread (Arizona State favored by about 3.5) suggests a more balanced attack as well, so our Underdog Optimizer leans less than 25.5 yards for Leavitt at a 56% expected win rate.
Junior Sherrill Less Than 38.5 Receiving Yards
Sherrill is a bit of a boom/bust receiver because he really hurts for volume but still has managed to get to 39 yards receiving in three of his last six.
On the season, Sherrill only has one game of more than three catches. Now, he’s averaging almost 16 yards per reception and thus only needs two or three to pay off, but Vanderbilt is a 7.5-point dog against LSU. We’ll take the fade here and the 56% expected win rate for our Underdog entry.
Quinshon Judkins Less than 69.5 Rushing Yards
This is the marquee game of the weekend, with major Big Ten and Playoff stakes.
What we like about Judkins: He’s a playmaking back who has managed to usurp a star in TreVeyon Henderson as the Buckeyes’ lead guy at times this season. What we don’t like: He’s still sharing a lot of touches.
Henderson has been steadier, going over 60 yards in eight of 10 games. Judkins has more boom games — two over 100 yards, but only five games over 60. Taking on a strong Indiana team, we’re going to lean on the timeshare being the death of Judkins’ chance of going for 70-plus.
