The Arkansas Razorbacks and No. 12 LSU Tigers are scheduled to face off on Saturday evening, and the home team is a massive 17.5-point favorite. Every week, I’ll post my top college football picks by Monday and provide an update before each game — you can check out all of my college football Week 4 picks here. Let’s dig into today’s Arkansas-LSU odds as we make our predictions and pick the best college football Week 4 bet!
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Arkansas-LSU Pick & Betting Prediction | College Football Week 4
Arkansas-LSU Betting Odds
Odds via FanDuel Sportsbook
Arkansas: +580 | LSU: -880
Arkansas +17.5: -110 | LSU -17.5: -110
Over 54.5: -110 | Under 54.5: -110
Expert: Isaiah Sirois
Arkansas-LSU Pick & Prediction
The Arkansas Razorbacks will head into Death Valley for a matchup against the No. 12 LSU Tigers. They are 17.5-point road underdogs for the matchup. The last time LSU beat Arkansas by at least 18 points, Joe Burrow was the starting quarterback for the Tigers. They have Jayden Daniels at the helm this year, who, in case you forgot, looked extremely beatable against Florida State just a few weeks ago. Daniels even started against Arkansas last year and looked terrible, barely leading the Tigers to a three-point win in a game that Arkansas’ starting signal-caller, K.J. Jefferson, missed with an injury.
Jefferson is a better quarterback than Daniels. Last year, Jefferson ranked 11th in yards per attempt (8.8) and eighth in ing efficiency (164.9). Daniels ranked 55th (7.5) and 40th (144.5), respectively. Daniels currently outranks Jefferson in both metrics this year, but I expect some serious regression from Daniels after his solid showings against FCS Grambling State and Mississippi State. Daniels recorded a season-low ing efficiency grade of 88.2 against the Razorbacks last year. Despite last week’s tough loss to BYU, Arkansas’s defense heads into Week 4 ranked ninth in yards allowed per play (4).
The Razorbacks have a worse ing cast around Jefferson than the one LSU has around Daniels, but we don’t need the Hogs to be better than the Tigers. We just need them to not be 18 points worse. Say what you will about Arkansas head coach Sam Pittman, but he is 11-7 against the spread (ATS) against ranked opponents with the Hogs. LSU head coach Brian Kelly is 2-3 ATS against ranked opponents since his arrival in Baton Rouge and was 26-24 ATS against them at Notre Dame. The Hogs are also 7-3 ATS as road underdogs under Pittman. The Tigers are 4-0 ATS as home favorites under Kelly, but I trust Jefferson and company to keep this one out of blowout territory — or to at least backdoor it — come Saturday evening.
The Razorbacks haven’t been perfect under Pittman, but they’ve taken just five losses of 18 points or more during his tenure. Those came against Georgia in 2020 (27), Florida in 2020 (28), Alabama in 2020 (49), Georgia in 2021 (37), Alabama in 2022 (23) and Mississippi State in 2022 (23). Three of those blowout losses came in Pittman’s first year at the helm. Two came against that year’s eventual national champion. Four came in games that Jefferson didn’t start, the exceptions being the Georgia game in 2021 and the Alabama game in 2022. The Hogs may not steal a win in Death Valley this weekend, but they’ll keep things closer than the spread would have you believe.
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I recommended playing this one at 18.5 in the early week column, and, unsurprisingly, the market has come down from that number as money has come in. Pregame reports that the Hogs have drawn a whopping 81% of the cash on just 54% of the tickets to cover this generous spread. While LSU’s offense can score in bunches, as we saw against Mississippi State last week, Daniels played way over his skis the last two weeks and is due for some regression. Don’t expect the Hogs to just roll over on Saturday evening. Back them at any number under 17.
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Arkansas-LSU Week 4 Pick: Arkansas +17.5 -110 at DraftKings
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