It’s happening! We’re down to the back half of the First Four, which is a fancy way of saying that we’re less than 24 hours away from the Big Dance. We’re all excited, so let’s dive straight into our top college basketball picks today as our experts break down their best college basketball bets for Wednesday, including a Montana State-Grambling State prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our other sportsbook promotions for March Madness.
College Basketball Picks Today: Expert Bets for Wednesday, March 20
College Basketball Expert Pick #1: Colorado-Boise State Prediction
Despite losing in the Pac-12 final, Colorado enters this game with a superior statistical profile to Boise State.
The Buffs rank 25th in adjusted offense and 39th on defense, while the Broncos check in 46th on offense and 36th on defense.
The Buffs also play a tall lineup behind Cody Williams, Eddie Lampkin Jr. and Tristan Da Silva. Boise State ranks 256th in interior defense, where they will be severely disadvantage.
If Boise State opts to dedicate extra resources to the paint, Colorado also ranks fourth nationally in 3-point percentage, with KJ Simpson and J’Vonne Hadley shooting over 40% on the year.
College Basketball Pick: Colorado -3 -110 at bet365
College Basketball Expert Pick #2: Colorado-Boise State Prediction
OddsShopper’s college basketball betting tools advise that you get some money down on this Colorado-Boise State first-half total before the value gets bid off the board by sharp bettors.
Caesars is offering the first half over 65.5 for only -110 when the rest of the market is taking action on this for -120 or steeper — and Pinnacle, a sharp book, lists the over 66.5 for -105.
Using a market-based betting approach can feel weird, but it’s profitable. Between the start of the NBA season and the All-Star Break, the model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip and 5% on those wagered two hours before tip.
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College Basketball Pick: Colorado-Boise State First Half Over 65.5 -110 at Caesars
College Basketball Expert Pick #3: Montana State-Grambling State Prediction
Montana State continues to take money, but it seems warranted. Although they are a .500 team, they should have several advantages over a Grambling State team that plays very slowly and struggles to do much on the offensive end.
Grambling State is also one of the worst teams in turnover percentage, and their inability to take and make 3-pointers should hold them back tonight.
Meanwhile, Montana State is shooting near 37% from 3-point land on the year, and their leading scorer is north of 42%, which is an elite number. Grambling State just doesn’t have enough offense, and it should be a quick exit for them here. I like this number inside 5 even with slightly extra juice at -114
College Basketball Pick: Montana State -4.5 -114 at FanDuel
— Ben Rasa
