Although March Madness has arrived, bettors cannot let that distract them from the surplus of value available each night in the NBA. Let’s get into our top NBA picks today as we break down our expert bets for Wednesday, including a Jarrett Allen prediction. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our NBA player prop betting.
NBA Picks Today: Expert Bets for Wednesday, March 20
NBA Expert Pick #1: Best Malik Beasley Bet
With Giannis Antetokounmpo out for the Milwaukee Bucks tonight, it spells disaster for them on the road in Boston.
While Damian Lillard and Khris Middleton see absurd 34.8% and 33.2% usage rates, respectively, with Antetokounmpo off the floor this season, Beasley’s is only at 15.1% relative to his normal 13.8%.
That’s hardly anything to worry about. Beasley’s low usage combined with the possible blowout game script against one of the best defensive backcourts in the league make shorting him at this number and price a no-brainer.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Malik Beasley Under 12.5 Points -118 at FanDuel
NBA Expert Pick #2: Best Darius Garland Bet
OddsShopper’s BetMGM is offering a bet for odds of -135 that our model believes has true odds (or breakeven odds) of -152. The model draws that conclusion due to Pinnacle, a sharp book, listing the same bet for -181.
Over a large enough sample size, bets like this one are enough to dramatically transform your bankroll (16.5% ROI on one specific NBA player prop market.
Those results aren’t variance: from the start of the season to the All-Star Break, our model recorded an ROI of 8.6% on all NBA player prop bets wagered 12 hours before tip — and 5% on all props wagered two hours before tip.
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NBA Expert Pick Today: Darius Garland Under 3.5 3-Pointers -135 at Caesars
NBA Expert Pick #3: Best Jarrett Allen Bet
The shorthanded Cleveland Cavaliers draw the Miami Heat tonight. It’s a tough matchup for both sides, but Bam Adebayo is available and Jimmy Butler could be back. The Cavs will remain without Evan Mobley and Donovan Mitchell, forcing Jarrett Allen and Darius Garland into larger roles, possibly allowing the Heat to focus on shutting them down.
Miami’s stingy interior defense is an issue for paint-reliant bigs like Allen. The Heat have allowed the second-fewest points in the paint per game since the All-Star Break (43.4) to go with the second-fewest made field goals allowed in the restricted area (14.5). A whopping 72.3% of Allen’s made field goals have come in the restricted area.
I was excited about fading Allen as a scorer today — his points prop (16.5) is trading above his season average (16.2) and his average against Adebayo with the Cavs (9.5) — but I also noticed his rebounding prop (11.5) popping in the model. We can get him to stay under 28.5 points and rebounds, giving slightly more breathing room, for odds of -120 only at DraftKings.
NBA Expert Pick Today: Jarrett Allen Under 28.5 Points & Rebounds -120 at DraftKings
