This could be it for the Minnesota Timberwolves despite having the league’s best defense. It did not matter much this series against Dallas as both Kyrie Irving and Luka Doncic took turns punishing that stellar unit. Anthony Edwards has either been slowed down or left with little help; either way, the T-Wolves are down bad and facing elimination on the road. Let’s hit this 3x entry tonight with some Underdog Fantasy NBA pick’em predictions!
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Underdog Fantasy NBA Pick’em Predictions Today
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Anthony Edwards H/L Than 6.5 Assists
This is an elimination game and possible legacy game for a guy who needs to score as much as humanly possible. The T-Wolves will not hold on tonight with Edwards becoming a facilitator. Who is he going to to, Karl-Anthony Towns? Minnesota can’t rely on Jaden McDaniels and Mike Conley to be set up by Edwards; the latter is going to have to score in buckets. Ok, so you’re probably thinking I’m out of my mind, as Edwards has comfortably cleared this number in each of the three games played versus Dallas. While that’s true, there’s a massive shift that comes before an elimination game — especially this deep in the playoffs.
The Mavs are up 3-0 with Edwards becoming more of a facilitator than he should be. It’s an easier pivot for him to return to a higher volume of shots — he finished with less than 20 in Games 1 and 2. That’s simply unacceptable for a player of his caliber in a situation like this, especially given the less overall help with Towns struggling, to say the least. There’s a slight edge against the market thanks to OddsShopper’s NBA pick’em tool. The implied odds on Underdog sit at -122, which beat the -127 true odds for a 1.8% EV edge.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Anthony Edwards LOWER Than 6.5 Assists
Kyle Anderson H/L Than 5.5 Points
Once again, we see a small-market play where the higher has hit in each game this series. The T-Wolves are getting 17-plus minutes a game from Kyle Anderson as he’s generally smashed the above total — 7 points was his lowest output this series. Once again, we find value in fading a player like Anderson on the road in a closeout game.
Despite just three games played in this series there are a couple of outliers. The first being minutes played. While he’s been at or above 17, he may see a dip tonight if Minnesota keeps it close — even winning on the road. The T-Wolves aren’t playing for the next few games, just tonight, which may tighten the rotation even more.
Another thing is the 3-for-4 night Anderson had at the free-throw line in Game 2. He’s yet to take a free throw since and didn’t in Game 1. It is hard to predict total attempts, but he’s not someone who typically gets to the line in volume.
The last outlier is the shooting percentage that simply can’t keep up. Anderson shot the ball extremely well despite limited attempts: 5-for-6 in Game 3 and 5-for-8 in Game 1. We don’t anticipate him staying that hot tonight; take lower than 5.5 points.
Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Prediction: Kyle Anderson LOWER Than 5.5 Points
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