Best NBA Player Prop Bets Today for Tuesday, May 28

This is it. The Minnesota Timberwolves are down to their final game against the Dallas Mavericks, and to make it to the NBA Finals, they’ll have to something that’s never been done before: Dig out of a three-game hole. While it usually would be a good idea to fade their players who haven’t been in this situation before, I’m fading someone who has been: center Rudy Gobert.

We all saw Gobert give up the game-winning shot to Luka Doncic in Game 2. In Game 3, Gobert got into early foul trouble and played 28 minutes. He is now averaging just 12.3 points and 7.7 rebounds per game this series (20 total) and 0.57 points and rebounds per minute. Even over a normal playoff workload for Gobert, which is about 36 minutes, that would yield just 20.5 points and rebounds.

We’re fading Gobert because his presence doesn’t really help the Timberwolves at this point. He didn’t offer much against Doncic and the 2022 Mavericks, averaging 12 points and 9.7 rebounds per game; and he doesn’t offer much now. He can’t defend the perimeter. He can only score layups in dunks. In a must-win situation, look for Minnesota to feature Karl-Anthony Towns and Naz Reid.

Although this bet is -102 at FanDuel, most public books have it priced between -105 and -118, with Pinnacle, a sharp book, taking action at -130. We’re beating the market and Jones’ series average with this bet as the books expect an above-average showing from Jones tonight.

The tools work by indexing the odds across the market; adjusting for hold, book sharpness and more; and generating a fair market price (called true odds) for each wager. If a bet is trading for odds longer than its true odds, it’s time to pounce! That’s what we’re seeing with this bet.

Sports bettors new to backtested simulations prove this strategy is profitable, but iffy early returns can’t discourage you.