There’s a whole buffet of basketball on the menu today, and with how bonkers the NBA has been so far this season, every single matchup feels like it could go off the rails in the best way possible. But why just watch the chaos when we can profit from it? That’s where our Underdog Fantasy pick’em predictions today.
By the way, our check out our full early-season NBA ROI breakdown here.
NBA Underdog Fantasy Pick’em Predictions Today
It can be tough to find Standard Underdog entries that are both +EV and at a palatable number of picks. Don’t get me wrong; on a long-term scale, those six-pick entries that are 10% +EV are still going to give you returns. But on a night-to-night basis, I get that they can be a little more frustrating.
This Underdog NBA entry isn’t exactly overflowing with expected value, but it is +EV and the only such option we have at the moment for Friday. Let’s get into it.
Tyler Herro Less Than 25.5 Points
The good news for Herro is Jimmy Butler being out is opening up minutes and shots. Stokastic’s industry-leading NBA DFS projections have Herro at 36.4 minutes tonight, just trailing Bam Adebayo for most on the team.
He’s also shooting absolutely lights out this year (50.9% from the field, 47.9% from 3) and is coming off a 40-point outing on Tuesday. But we’re playing the regression game here, projecting Herro for 3.8 3’s. Every time he has scored 26 or more, Herro has made at least four. Only once has he made that number and fallen shy.
We’re projecting him a tick under four, so we have him at a 55% chance of scoring 25 or less tonight.
Austin Reaves Less Than 4.5 Rebounds
The Lakers get the Spurs tonight, and for a team led by such a young star, San Antonio plays somewhat slowly. Chris Paul pushing 30 minutes a game definitely helps that along. The Spurs are averaging about a possession and a half less per 48 than the Lakers, and they are also rebounding at a significantly higher clip.
Reaves has only cleared 4.5 rebounds once this month, and this isn’t a great matchup for it to happen. We have him at a 55% chance of staying below 4.5 rebounds, making this play a tick positive in of expected value.
Clint Capela Less than 8.5 Rebounds
On the other end of the spectrum, this Wizards-Hawks matchup is pace galore. In fact, it’s one of the few opponents where the Hawks get a pace up.
That said, Capela’s minutes have been all over the place, switching off between full 25-minutes runs and shorter 16-minute ones. We have four Atlanta bigs projecting for more minutes than Capela tonight, and we also have Jalen Johnson and Onyeka Okongwu at 17.4 combined rebounds. Capela is only at 8.3, a hair below his 8.5 projection.
It’s another 55%er for this Portfolio EV tools for just $29.95 a week or $99.95 a month.
