Things are back to normal Friday night in the NBA. After a random one-game slate featuring one of the worst teams in the NBA and the Dallas Mavericks, we are back with 12 games on tap. Both Utah and Dallas are off after playing last night, but we do see the Warriors welcoming the Grizzlies, the undefeated Cavaliers hosting Chicago, and a heavyweight matchup between Phoenix and Oklahoma City. This is a huge slate with tons of value, so let’s look at tonight’s top NBA player props and picks from Portfolio EV.
NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today: Friday, Nov. 15
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NBA Player Prop Picks & Predictions Today
Last night was a perfect example of how it doesn’t matter the size of the slate, it’s the value of the pick. If you are following my Road to 100-plus betting units in the NBA, you noticed we hit a sweet spot of profit last night despite only having nine bets — nine bets in one game, and we went 6-3 with a three-unit profit. Just because there’s one game or that game happens to look terrible, don’t think the value is gone too. Our tools don’t care what the aesthetics are, just where the value is against the market.
Tonight’s slate is larger and has some serious star power. With so many quality matchups on the slate, people may be further inclined to hammer popular names to hit their overs. That opens some vulnerability to the under, as you will see across most plays during the day with our tools. It might appear you have to completely change your betting habits, but it’s more a matter of widening the net cast for value. Unless you are just guessing, you are still looking for value when betting an alt over parlay. We ask that you simply take that same approach but with an under!
Three of our top plays across Portfolio EV feature some of the bigger names in the NBA. The expectations are people have pushed for some over plays, specifically with LeBron James as he’s been on a tear.
Because James has recently been synonymous with triple-doubles, it stands to reason that James is a popular play again. Because of that, we get a great break on his under 9.5 assists. The price listed at +112 is much better than the +102 true odds, giving us a 5% edge.
Not only does this play beat the market, it also beats every other book offering a worse price. This is how we profit, folks. It’s a proven method that by staying ahead of the market, you will profit over time. There seem to be greater chances or maybe more opportunities to fade a star player, especially in a star-driven sport.
The Suns and Thunder are headliners tonight, enough to rival the Mike Tyson-Jake Paul bout, featuring star power like Devin Booker. With Kevin Durant still ailing, there’s even more focus on Booker to take over; that’s why he’s seeing better value on the under. The same principle applies with Tobias Harris as he’s on the road in Toronto.
