As the NBA season heats up, understanding the dynamics of minutes and usage can give you a major edge when placing your bets. These two metrics are key indicators of a player’s role in their team’s game plan, helping bettors identify valuable opportunities. In this article, we’ll dive into tonight’s NBA betting data by analyzing projected minutes and usage for key players, alongside some of the top NBA betting picks from Tails By OddsShopper.
NBA Betting Data: Minutes and Usage Projections
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Boston Celtics Minutes and Usage Projections (-12.5 at Wizards)
In their season opener, the Celtics dismantled the Knicks in a blowout, with Jayson Tatum leading the way. Payton Pritchard, who closed the game and played 25 minutes, could see extended time if another blowout unfolds, while Jrue Holiday played just 18 minutes in the opener. Look for Luke Kornet and Xavier Tillman to split minutes at center, though Tillman’s role in Game 1 came primarily in garbage time.
Boston’s 3-point barrage (they tied an NBA record with 29 makes) is something to watch again, especially against a Wizards team that ranked third in the league for most 3’s allowed last season. Expect Boston to run a nine-man rotation, assuming Sam Ha is healthy enough to suit up.
Betting Pick: The Celtics are a strong bet at -12.5 according to expert Ben Rasa.
Washington Wizards Minutes and Usage Projections (+12.5 vs. Celtics)
The Wizards are up against it in this matchup, with a depleted roster and an uphill battle as 12.5-point underdogs. The team has undergone significant changes, including the additions of Alex Sarr, Bub Carrington and Kyshawn George, but they’ve lost Deni Avdija and Tyus Jones. With Malcolm Brogdon and Saddiq Bey both sidelined, this is shaping up to be a tough night for Washington.
Second overall pick Sarr is expected to start at power forward, and Jordan Poole will take on the role of starting point guard and primary ball handler. Defensively, the Wizards are a disaster, with no positively rated players by Defensive Plus-Minus (DPM). Poole, Kyle Kuzma and Corey Kispert are among the worst defenders in the NBA, leaving Washington vulnerable against the Celtics’ firepower.
Betting Pick: If you’re looking for season-long futures, Washington at +240 to finish with the fewest wins in the league could be a sharp play.
San Antonio Spurs Minutes and Usage Projections (+8.5 at Mavericks)
The San Antonio Spurs will likely be cautious with how much they push Victor Wembanyama early in the season.
We have Wembanyama projected for 31.3 minutes, though it’s worth noting that he began last season in the 25- to 30-minute range before ramping up as the season progressed. The Spurs are expected to run a 10-man rotation.
Betting Pick: With both San Antonio and Dallas ranking in the top 10 for pace last season, the lean here is towards the over on the total set at 228.5.
Dallas Mavericks Minutes and Usage Projections (-7.5 vs. Spurs)
The Dallas Mavericks have retooled their roster, adding Klay Thompson, Naji Marshall, Tim Hardaway Jr. and Spencer Dinwiddie, while losing Derrick Jones Jr. and Josh Green. Luka Doncic ranked second in the league in usage last season. He averaged a triple-double against the Spurs, though his points per game dipped slightly from 33.9 to 29.
We project a 10-man rotation, with all starters expected to play 30-plus minutes, except for Gafford and Lively.
Oklahoma City Thunder Minutes and Usage Projections (+2.5 at Nuggets)
With injuries to Isaiah Hartenstein, Nikola Topic and Kenrich Williams, the Thunder will be relying heavily on their starting five, especially Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. Without Josh Giddey, we expect a significant usage bump for Gilgeous-Alexander. Last season, in 641 minutes with either Jalen Williams or Chet Holmgren on the floor and Giddey off, Gilgeous-Alexander posted a 35% usage rate. Oklahoma City will run a nine-man rotation, and minutes should be plentiful for the starters.
Denver Nuggets Minutes and Usage Projections (-1.5 vs. Thunder)
They’ve made some adjustments to their roster, adding Russell Westbrook, DaRon Holmes and Dario Saric while losing Kentavious Caldwell-Pope and Reggie Jackson. Denver is in a pace-down spot, as it ranked 27th in pace last season, which could limit scoring opportunities. Russell Westbrook is expected to come off the bench and lead the second unit, with his minutes projected at 22.5.
Betting Pick: Josh Engleman recommends looking at Russell Westbrook’s under 13 points and assists prop.
Minnesota Timberwolves Minutes and Usage Projections (-1.5 at Kings)
Mike Conley barely played on opening night, with Donte DiVincenzo taking on a larger role at point guard. The market hasn’t yet fully adjusted to DiVincenzo’s increased minutes, making his prop bets intriguing moving forward. The Timberwolves ran a nine-man rotation in their season-opening loss to the Lakers, and we expect a similar setup for this game.
Betting Pick: “There’s nothing better than DiVincenzo getting tons of minutes and not performing opening night. This is a numbers game. If you give him the same workload and minutes, there are lots of situations where he doesn’t put up a flat zero in the PRA category.” – Eric Lindquist
Sacramento Kings Minutes and Usage Projections (+1.5 vs. Timberwolves)
The Sacramento Kings added Devin Carter, DeMar DeRozan and Jordan McLaughlin. However, Carter is out for this game, and there are concerns about how DeRozan, a reluctant outside shooter, fits into an offense built around Domantas Sabonis. The Kings will likely run a nine-man rotation, and Sabonis is projected for the most minutes of any player on the slate.
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