Michael Porter Jr. Player Prop: SLAM This Timberwolves-Nuggets Over for Game 5

After starting in an 0-2 hole, the Denver Nuggets swept the Minnesota Timberwolves on the road to even the series. It’s been a weird series, especially for Michael Porter Jr. — he scored 20 and 21 in Games 1 and 3 but nine and four in Games 2 and 4. The books have set his points prop to 15.5. The over clocks in at +100 on BetMGM, and that’s going on today’s NBA player prop betting card.

Porter is averaging 18.7 points per game in the postseason, going over the 15.5 in seven of nine games. He averaged 15.8 per game against the Timberwolves in the regular season, going over just twice. Importantly, his postseason average improves to 19.2 at home, and his regular-season average improved to 17.9 in Denver as well. This is too good of a buy-low spot to up for me.

I expect the Timberwolves to make some major defensive adjustments after allowing Aaron Gordon to cook them for 27 points on splits of 92/100/100. Rudy Gobert was his primary defender, logging 6:52 of coverage and allowing him to shoot 100% from the floor. Those adjustments will hopefully free up some open looks for MPJ, making a bounce-back showing from the forward a bit easier.