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NBA Same Game Parlay: Caesars Parlay With Jalen Brunson & More
Leg #1: Jalen Brunson Under 3.5 Rebounds
As was the case Sunday, today’s NBA same-game parlay is a testament to why you should bet unders: Parlay Builder.
Our first play for this Pacers-Knicks parlay brings us to the main reason why New York is even here, Jalen Brunson. The problem now is that Brunson has logged a ton of minutes — unhealthy minutes, mind you — and his tires are running out of tread. Everyone on the Knicks seems gassed at this point.
New York needs a lot of scoring and playmaking from Brunson, so we’re not expecting him to exceed his postseason average on the boards (3.8 per game). In fact, missed shots may be the one time of the game where he gets a little respite. That bears out in the game logs from the last three, as Brunson recorded only five rebounds total in that span.
Now, it is worth noting that OddsShopper gives Brunson a 54% chance of getting at least four rebounds. However, the odds on the under are quite long at +126, which more than offsets the 46% expected win rate.
Individually, this bet is 4.8% +EV in the OddsShopper model, and it is the value driver of tonight’s Pacers-Knicks NBA SGP.
Leg #2: Precious Achiuwa Under 6.5 Rebounds
Now that we’ve locked in some solid plus money to boost our EV, we need something to enhance our chances of winning a two-leg parlay without sacrificing too much in of odds. Alas, here comes Precious Achiuwa.
That 6.5 line might look good for an over, or at least close to one, given Achiuwa averaged 6.6 boards per game, not to mention the losses of Mitchell Robinson and O.G. Anunoby. Granted, that has led to Achiuwa ing the starting lineup and getting 20-plus minutes. What it has not led to, however, is an uptick in rebounds.
Achiuwa has yet to grab seven boards or more since Anunoby went out despite playing 22 to 28 minutes in all three games. A big part of that is Miles McBride and Alec Burks being able to get more time as well since Josh Hart is filling in irably as the Knicks’ No. 1 rebounding guy, and that means New York can go small for long stretches with Isaiah Hartenstein as the lone big. So yes, the Knicks are playing Achiuwa more, but they don’t need him for 30-plus.
OddsShopper gives Achiuwa a 56% chance of staying under 6.5 rebounds, and on its own this play is beating the market by 2.4% thanks to solid odds of -121. As part of the SGP, this drives the win rate up to 25% and the expected value to a strong 7%.
NBA Parlay Today: +312 at Caesars Sportsbook
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