These two Western Conference teams perfectly bounce between being the best the conference has to offer and the token “happy to be there” also-ran. But hey, that’s why we love the parity of today’s NBA — the variance on a nightly basis. Let’s embrace it with a Parlay Builder.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: BetMGM Parlay With Mike Conley & More
Leg #1: Mike Conley Under 6.5 Assists
Not that it matters much — one-game samples are a fruitless chase — but this exact prop was a successful leg of the Wednesday Mavericks-Timberwolves parlay. Conley only dropped three assists in that one, and it wasn’t even due to limited minutes; he played over 30.
Anthony Edwards has been dominating the ball to a degree in the postseason, with a usage rate of 29.3% (assists are not factored into usage rate, but it is semi-indicative of possession dominance). His assist rate is up from 24.6% in the regular season to 27% in the playoffs as well.
Conley’s assist rate has dropped a bit in the meantime, and though he is still leading the T-Wolves in assists per game, Edwards has closed the gap considerably.
Conley has now gone three straight games without seven-plus assists, and his over clip on 6.5 has dipped below 50% for the playoffs — it was also sub-50% in the regular season.
Perhaps Minnesota will have a hot shooting night and get Conley back on track. Or maybe this is the new trend, with Edwards being lead playmaker.
BetMGM odds of -140. That makes this play 3.4% +EV on its own, and more importantly, it is a positive value that drives up the total expected win rate for the parlay.
Leg #2: Mike Conley Under 1.5 3-Pointers
That’s right, we’re going with the full Conley fade today.
Again, a one-game sample is not a good barometer for success on any given night, and though he only hit one 3 in Game 1, Conley did take six. He has at least five 3-point attempts in most games this postseason, and as a 44% 3-point shooter, he is more likely to make two of those than one.
And that is the very reason the under has only a 44% chance of hitting, according to BetMGM, which is basically begging to be hammered given the True Odds of +129. That discrepancy in BetMGM odds and True Odds gives this bet a 7.1% edge and is where a lot of that total 10.7% +EV evaluation from the Parlay Builder is coming from.
We can count on Conley playing 30 minutes and taking a handful of shots. But considering Conley is only making 1.6 3’s a game for his postseason career, there is enough of a window of either lower usage or a cold shooting night that the under looks great as part of a Mavs-Wolves parlay. He has made one or zero 3’s in four of 11 postseason games, including on Wednesday, so another such game is perfectly within the range of outcomes.
Now we have a two-leg SGP with a 26% expected win rate that is a strong 10.7% +EV at +320.
NBA Parlay Today: +320 at BetMGM
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