Yesterday’s article put together a nice 2-1 showing, with us getting our Domantas Sabonis and DeMar DeRozan unders but not our Jrue Holiday over. My full NBA cards are now up to 119-88-3 (+32.8u) on the year, and if you want access to them in real-time to ensure you get the best odds, make sure to subscribe to guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo & More
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
The Milwaukee Bucks will take on the Indiana Pacers again tonight, just a few days after losing to them in the in-season tournament semifinals. That means it’s time to revisit the same betting angle we used the last time these teams met: Giannis Antetokounmpo on the points market.
This angle is a simple one: on a per-game basis, Indiana allows the most points in the paint (62.4), the most made shots in the restricted area (21.8), the second-most points to power forwards (27.1) and the second-most points to centers (25.8), all while playing at the NBA’s fastest pace.
Antetokounmpo is the best-positioned member of the Bucks to exploit Indiana’s defensive weaknesses. He leads the Bucks (and the NBA!) in field goals attempted in the restricted area per game (11.3). He has tallied 54 and 37 points against the Pacers to date.
The books are starting to wise up to this player prop betting angle, but I still haven’t seen enough adjustment from them to not slam the over again. His points total is trading at 33.5 at ESPNBet with the over priced at -125 (55.6%) — that’s still too low for me. The Bucks haven’t played since Monday and won’t play again until Saturday, so I expect big minutes from their starters tonight. I’m splitting a unit on a ladder from 33.5 to 36.5 (+130 at ESPNBet). If you feel like getting more aggressive with your ladder, go nuts — there just isn’t enough value anymore for me to get that excited.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 33.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Kyle Lowry Player Prop
The Miami Heat will have to play the Charlotte Hornets tonight and the Chicago Bulls tomorrow. Those aren’t especially tough opponents, but the back-to-back set means we may see the starters for fewer minutes, especially if things get out of hand. With Kyle Lowry averaging 9.1 points per game but owning a median score of just 8, staying under his points total in 13 of 22 appearances, I can’t turn down the under for odds of +110. OddsShopper can’t, either.
Scoring output aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Kyle Lowry Under 9.5 Points +110 at DraftKings
Dennis Schröder Player Prop
The Toronto Raptors have a date with the Atlanta Hawks scheduled for tonight. They last played on Monday and won’t play again until Friday, so it’s a normal scheduling spot, which means we can expect an average amount of minutes for Toronto’s starters. As a result, I’m getting some action down on this Dennis Schröder over.
The Hawks have struggled defensively all season. They rank 27th in both points allowed in the paint per game (55.2) and defensive rating, 29th in assists allowed per game (28.3) and 29th in assists allowed per game to point guards (9.3). They’re also playing at the third-fastest pace in the association.
Dennis Schröder should get plenty of chances to set up his teammates tonight. Although Toronto’s offensive scheme puts the ball in the hands of many different players, Schröder leads the team in es made (61.5), potential assists (11.1) and assists (7) on a per-game basis.
Not many point guards as often as Schröder. He ranks sixth in the NBA in es made per game and fourth among point guards. The Hawks played three games against point guards who outrank Schröder as ers. Tyrese Maxey tallied assist totals of seven and eight, beating his season average (6.7) both times, while Tyrese Haliburton racked up 16 dimes, also beating his season average (12.3). With Schröder averaging seven assists per game, I feel comfortable about playing the over 7.5 for +120 at FanDuel and laddering it up to 12 (+1100) through 10 (+390).
NBA Player Prop Pick: Dennis Schröder Over 7.5 Assists +120 at FanDuel
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