After last night’s 2-1 showing, let’s look to start a new streak of profitable nights. We went 31-7 from Nov. 20 to Dec. 4 with no worse than a 2-1 showing, so it’s possible! We hit our Joel Embiid over with ease (he needed 32 points but scored 50), our Shai Gilgeous-Alexander under was a sweat (he needed to stay under 42.5 PRA but had… 42) and our Spencer Dinwiddie over didn’t work out. I’ve got NBA player prop picks out for Giannis Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis and Myles Turner. If you’re hungry for more picks, check out our guide to NBA player prop betting as well.
NBA Player Props Today: Picks for Giannis Antetokounmpo & More
Giannis Antetokounmpo Player Prop
When Giannis Antetokounmpo lined up against the Indiana Pacers earlier this season, he feasted for a season-high 54 points. He scored a whopping 38 points on the floor, 32 of which came in the paint, to go with 16 points from free throws. The Pacers just couldn’t stop him down low, and they won’t be able to stop him down low tonight. While Giannis may be averaging only 30.2 points per game this year, down from the 31.1 he recorded last year, tonight is a great time to target him.
The Pacers field the NBA’s worst interior defense. Indiana allows the most points in the paint per game (62.6) and the most made shots in the restricted area per game (21.9). That corresponds to the second-most points per game allowed to centers (25.5) and the fifth-most to power forwards (27.2). Recent games haven’t gone much better — the Pacers have allowed 60 points in the paint per game over the last five contests. The Celtics tallied 56 points in the paint on Monday as well.
Most books have set Giannis’ point total at 33.5, which is a number we’ve seen him clear in just seven of his 20 starts this season. However, we can tease it down to 32.5 for odds of -125 (55.6%) on ESPNBet, which is a number we’ve seen him clear 10 times. The half-point may not sound that meaningful, but its hit rate is 15% higher so far this year after being 4.8% higher in 2022-23 and 5.9% higher in 2021-22. With the over 33.5 trading at -105 (51.2%), I’m willing to stomach the extra 4.4% of implied probability for the higher win rate. I’m also laddering this one through 35.5 and 39.5.
NBA Player Prop Pick: Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 32.5 Points -125 at ESPNBet
Anthony Davis Player Prop
The Los Angeles Lakers and New Orleans Pelicans will square off on the late slate tonight as both teams look to advance in the NBA’s inaugural in-season tournament. The Lakers are a slight 2-point favorite, but despite their advantage, both OddsShopper and I are skeptical of one of their superstars: Anthony Davis. Davis is averaging an impressive 12.6 rebounds per game this year with a medium showing of 13, but this looks like an effective spot to fade him. Davis is averaging just 11.6 rebounds per game against New Orleans since arriving in Los Angeles. That dips to 11 when LeBron James is active.
Stats aside, our OddsShopper calculates true odds by indexing odds available at all books and adjusting for book sharpness and hold.
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NBA Player Prop Pick: Anthony Davis Under 12.5 Rebounds +106 at FanDuel
Myles Turner Player Prop
When the Indiana Pacers last played the Milwaukee Bucks on Nov. 9, I recommended buying Myles Turner to go over 1.5 3-pointers at odds of +105. He went 4-for-9 from beyond the arc that day, and the over for this rematch is now down to -135. I still think there is some value on that number, especially after what we saw from Turner slightly less than a month ago.
Turner is averaging 2.1 3-pointers per game against the Bucks since the 2021-22 campaign. Since the 2019-20 campaign, Turner has made five starts against the Bucks without Domantas Sabonis, through which he is averaging 3.4 3-pointers per contest. He cleared the over 1.5 in all five of those games. Milwaukee’s cast of bigs just hasn’t been able to close out well against Turner on the perimeter.
Although Turner is averaging only 1.4 3-pointers per game this year, down from the 1.5 he averaged last year, it’s not for a lack of volume — his conversion rate has just dipped to 32.9% from 37.3%. Turner is a career 35.2% shooter from deep, so expect him to benefit from regression soon.
You can find Turner’s over priced at -135 (57.5%) on bet365. Just about every other book has a worse price, with BetMGM at -140 (58.3%) and Pinnacle, a sharp book, at -155 (60.8%). We aren’t getting a great deal relative to his actual hit rate this year, which sits at just 36.8%, but I’m willing to put enough faith in Turner’s splits against the Bucks to back him here. If you’re new to bet365, you can get $150 in bets after betting $5 — or up to $1,000 in bonus bets back if your first wager loses — and if you’re a Louisiana resident, you can take advantage of the sportsbook’s recent launch for $365 in bonus bets after betting $1!
NBA Player Prop Pick:
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