Two 3-0 series is not ideal for our enjoyment, or possibly for our betting either. Don’t let that stop you from churning out some great parlay sweats, though. Today we’re all about a Parlay Builder for help on this one.
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NBA Same Game Parlay: Bet365 Parlay With Myles Turner & More
Leg #1: Obi Toppin Under 1.5 Assists
Again, today’s NBA same-game parlay is a testament to why you should bet unders: Parlay Builder.
The Pacers are now at roughly 1 1/2 games that they should have won but lost in pure “failure to take care of the ball” fashion. They are clearly not a team that will roll over and die with a whimper, but I am also at the points where I expect them to blow every lead, turn the ball over at the worst times and miss open shots when it matters most.
Now, is Toppin falling short of 1.5 assists a direct result of that? Not necessarily, but it is the reason I am all in favor of a full Pacers fade with this parlay, and coincidentally, the Parlay Builder is spitting out +EV bets to help me get there.
Toppin has multiple assists in three of his last four games, and given he is playing around 18 to 20 minutes a night, time on court is not the main factor here. That said, his season assist average was 1.6 a game, and counting the playoffs, his rate of overs on 1.5 assists is 48%.
With the closeout game context, the potential return of Tyrese Haliburton and general regression for Toppin, it seems fair to bump the expected win rate on this under. OddsShopper agrees, putting him at a 55% chance of one or zero assists in Game 4.
Bet365 has the under at even -110 odds. OddsShopper places the True Odds at -122, which means we have a 5.0% edge with this bet.
Leg #2: Myles Turner Under 1.5 3-Pointers
Like with Toppin’s assists, Turner has been playing above his season 3-point numbers. In the regular season he only hit two 3’s or more in 42.9% of games, and his 3-point percentage was 35.8%. In the postseason he is turning into Klay Thompson making 45.7% of 3’s on 5.1 attempts for 2.3 makes a game.
And that is why the under on 1.5 Turner 3’s is getting plus money from bet365 at +110. That said, if we can get plus money on a bet with a neutral expected win rate, you know we’re getting positive expected value.
Turner may be a strong regression candidate given how immensely he is outperforming his historical shooting averages. But that’s not entirely what we’re playing here. Rather, we’re looking at market edge and using that to build up the odds and EV on our total Celtics-Pacers parlay.
With this Turner under, the total SGP EV goes to a strong 9.12% on bet365, and we can definitely work with the 27% expected win rate. All together, this is the best Celtics-Pacers SGP out there right now.
NBA Parlay Today: +300 at bet365
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