Bubba Wallace opened the week at 20-1 to win at Kansas and secured a 1.7-unit profit for last week’s column on just a 2.5-unit stake. The busted 1-unit correlation play on his 23XI Racing teammate Ty Gibbs to score a top-10 limited returns, but it was a solid profit, nonetheless. With the Cup Series headed to Bristol, the NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race odds point to value on a select few drivers who succeed on concrete for the below Bass Pro Shops Night Race picks and predictions.
2022 NASCAR Bass Pro Shops Night Race Odds, Picks & Predictions
Bass Pro Shops Night Race Betting Odds
Chase Elliott Win | +775 (0.25 Unit)
Bristol Motor Speedway is one of the select concrete circuits the NASCAR Cup Series visits regularly -- Dover, Martinsville and Nashville are the other three. Concrete is smoother than asphalt, which means tires wear slower but also put down less rubber. In turn, drivers have less grip on concrete tracks.
No driver has fared better on concrete in the NextGen car than Chase Elliott. Elliott led 185 laps and won both stages before finishing 10th at Martinsville. He then went on to win at Dover after leading 73 laps. He also won at Nashville after leading 42 laps. As such, it's somewhat surprising to see him not listed as the outright favorite -- Denny Hamlin and Kyle Larson both have shorter odds in most places.
Elliott isn't a huge-return play at this price, but he should compete for the win on Saturday night. He also qualified first at Martinsville, fourth at Dover and fourth at Nashville, so this price may not be around after qualifying. You'll find him at +750 at just about every book except PointsBet, so head there for a small bit of extra value.
Christopher Buescher Win | +12500 (0.1 Unit)
Christopher Buescher Top 10 | +350 (0.4 Unit)
Unlike Elliott, Christopher Buescher is a huge-return play at this price. With two new winners in back-to-back weeks, why not bet on a third new winner? Buescher finished 15th at Martinsville, 8th at Dover and 30th at Nashville. But the half-mile Bristol Motor Speedway races much more like Martinsville and Dover, two short tracks, than Nashville, an intermediate.
Buescher's recent performance, especially at road courses and short tracks, s this play. Buescher scored a third-place finish at Richmond, a three-quarter-mile oval, after chasing down the leaders late. That result came after four consecutive top-10 finishes at road courses, including a near-win at Sonoma.
Also like Elliott, Buescher has often performed well in qualifying. He started fourth at Martinsville, first at Dover and 15th at Nashville. He and the RFK Racing No. 17 team have made it to the second round of qualifying in three of the last four races. This number sits at only 100-1 at most books, so head to Caesars for a fair amount of extra value.
The best move is to split a unit between Buescher's outright and top-10 markets; these odds are simply too long. Buescher scored top-10s at Phoenix, Richmond and Dover -- three of the six Cup Series races on paved tracks that measure a mile or less.
Top 10 Bet: Erik Jones | +180 (0.25 Unit)
This price could be better, but a top-10 wager on Erik Jones offers some flexibility to increase the stake if Jones qualifies poorly and the books lengthen this number. Jones hasn't qualified well at the concrete tracks -- he started 24th at Martinsville, 25th at Dover and 23rd at Nashville -- but he made the second round of qualifying in both Richmond races.
Regardless of where Jones has started, he has often found his way up to the top 10 this year. He has the 14th-most top-10 finishes with 10, which ranks him ahead of Denny Hamlin and William Byron. Jones finished 13th at Martinsville, 10th at Dover and 11th at Nashville. He struggled after qualifying at both Richmond races, but another interesting comparator -- the smooth asphalt surface of Gateway Motorsports Park -- also points to value. Jones scored a seventh-place finish and led four laps there.
Jones burned the books with his win at Darlington. Fortunately, some books are at least offering more value than others. This line sits at +140 at Caesars and +170 at FanDuel, so head to DraftKings for the best price on the market.
