Last weekend was good for us — I backed Ford, and they cashed our +155 (39.2%) ticket on them to win. We’ve got the 2023 Cook Out Souther 500 on Sunday, September 3 at 6 p.m. ET from Darlington. Keep reading as I break down the betting odds, make my predictions and identify the top NASCAR bets for this weekend’s action at Darlington — we’re siding with the Toyotas and regular-season champion Martin Truex Jr.
NASCAR is one of the greatest sports to bet on! This season, I will handicap the opening outright odds for the NASCAR Cup Series early in the week, and I’ll post a prop article once those markets become available. Only of guide to successful NASCAR betting.
NASCAR Predictions for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington: Race Preview
Cook Out Southern 500 Odds
Odds via Caesars Sportsbook
Race Preview for the Cook Out Southern 500
Darlington Raceway is a 1.3-mile, egg-shaped oval. Lovingly nicknamed the Lady in Black, its rough surface and imbalanced corners make it quite the challenge -- a set-up that is optimal on one end of the track isn't likely to be optimal in the other, and drivers who drive aggressively early in the run are likely to lose spots later due to tire wear. Darlington is a true test of talent, so I weigh a driver's individual far more heavily than the quality of their equipment.
Erik Jones won last year's Cook Out Southern 500 as a shocking 80-1 (1.2%) longshot, but he only did so after the fastest cars crashed out or suffered mechanical failures. Jones led just 23 laps and recorded the sixth-best driver rating. The Joe Gibbs Racing teammates of Denny Hamlin, Christopher Bell, Kyle Busch and Martin Truex Jr. led 56.9% of the race, and all but Truex recorded better driver ratings. Fellow Toyota driver Bubba Wallace led another four laps as well.
To handicap this event, I am leaning heavily on the results from this spring's Darlington race and this summer's Nashville race. Both tracks measure about 1.3 miles in length and feature a rough surface that chews through tires. Truex, Denny Hamlin and Ross Chastain led considerable portions of all three events. Chastain even cashed an 11-1 (8.3%) ticket for us at Nashville!
NASCAR Predictions for the Cook Out Southern 500 at Darlington: Best Bets
NASCAR Darlington Prediction No. 1: Toyota Starts Hot
The Toyota stable has been dominant lately, and although the RFK Racing teammates of Brad Keselowski and Chris Buescher are getting a ton of attention, the Fords failed to do anything at Darlington in the spring or at Nashville in the fall. I see this event as a two-manufacturer race between Toyota and Chevrolet, and I have to give the edge to Toyota because of what we've seen out of them on the tracks with high tire wear.
Let's run through just how dominant Toyota looked at Darlington and Nashville earlier this season. Toyota drivers combined to lead 55.9% of the laps across the two tracks. Martin Truex Jr. led 145 of 280 (51.2%) of the laps at Darlington in the spring by himself. Truex and Hamlin then looked great at Nashville and finished first and second in both the event itself and by driver rating.
Notably, Toyota drivers dominated in of green flag speed at both events. Truex finished atop the leaderboard each time despite failing to win either race. Christopher Bell ranked sixth in both events as well, with Hamlin ranking fourth at Nashville. Bubba Wallace was ninth in green-flag speed at Darlington in the spring as well.
Starting track position matters, especially if you're looking to lock in a pre-qualifying outright, so it's also worth mentioning that Toyota has looked great in qualifying trim this year. Tyler Reddick owns the second-best average starting position of all full-time drivers at 10.7, while Hamlin ranks fourth (10.8), Bell fifth (10.9) and Truex seventh (12). Truex won the pole for the spring race at Darlington as well, starting alongside Wallace.
We can buy Toyota to win outright at odds of +130 (43.4%) via Caesars Sportsbook. Those aren't the longest odds, but they're longer than the number you'll find everywhere else. We get exposure to Truex (16.7%), Hamlin (11.8%), Reddick (9.1%) and Bell (8.3%), the four of whom own aggregate implied odds better than that number, along with Wallace (3.2%) and Ty Gibbs (3.2%).
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NASCAR Darlington Bet: Toyota +130 for 0.43 Units at Caesars
NASCAR Darlington Prediction No. 2: Martin Truex Jr. Gets the Win
Is this Martin Truex Jr's year? After going winless and missing the playoffs in 2022, the veteran driver has looked unstoppable all season. He won the regular-season championship and has three wins to his name already, which came at Dover, Sonoma and New Hampshire -- an eclectic selection of tracks that demonstrate his skill as a driver. Although William Byron has the most wins, Truex has the best average finish at 11.4.
Truex has also been great at Darlington in the recent past. He won here in 2021 after leading 248 of 293 laps, recording a perfect driver rating in the process. He has led at least one lap at Darlington in his last seven starts, a streak that dates back to 2020, and owns the best average driver rating here since then (111.9). However, he has gotten unlucky and also owns three DNFs here through that span.
While we aren't getting Truex as a big-time underdog like we did at Sonoma (thanks for cashing that 31-1 (3.1%) ticket for us, friend!), but there is still some value in getting a partial unit of action on him to pair with our Toyota ticket. Truex is trading right at 5-1 (16.7%) at Caesars Sportsbook and every major public book, so he isn't a value bet, but he is a much-deserved favorite and should hopefully get over his bad luck here.
NASCAR Darlington Bet: Martin Truex Jr. +500 for 0.05 Units at Caesars
