Best NASCAR Bets for the 2023 Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona

NASCAR Predictions for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona: Race Preview

How Should We Handicap Daytona?

Last year’s Coke Zero 400 was a nightmare. After a storm pushed the race back, NASCAR held the event on Sunday. A multitude of drivers made aggressive mid-race strategy calls to try and gain track position — only for a pop-up shower to take out almost the field. The race eventually resumed later that afternoon, but hardly anyone finished the race, and most of those who did were driving heavily damaged cars with no shot of winning the race.

There isn’t rain in the forecast this weekend, but bettors should know to expect the unexpected when it comes to Florida in August. Further, bettors should expect the same inherent unpredictability when it comes to superspeedways — the most dominant cars can have their strong runs ruined by a single mistake by another driver. Superspeedway betting almost always comes down to luck, which makes it especially foolish to heavily invest in a favorite.

We’ve seen four superspeedway races thus far, and a dominant manufacturer has emerged. Although Fords have only won one of the three events, a Ford driver has recorded the top driver rating in all four. More importantly, Fords have led a dominant 588 of 853, or 68.9%, possible laps on superspeedways. Although most of the best Ford drivers have already locked themselves into the playoffs, like Ryan Blaney, Brad Keselowski, Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick and Chris Buescher, there are still some like Austin Cindric who have not.

NASCAR Predictions for the Coke Zero Sugar 400 at Daytona: Best Bets

Take the Best Number for Ford Available

I hope that you saw this coming after reading the race preview. We’ve been pivoting away from outright exclusive cards and toward manufacturer-plus-driver cards because of the far lower hold on the manufacturer markets. Because it’s a three-way race, books can’t get away with raking as much without making it obvious. It’s a lot easier to find a meaningful edge on these markets when the most competitive drivers often own odds of 10-1 (9.2%) with some frequency.

The strongest argument for backing Ford to win Saturday night’s race is the difference between the number of laps they have led at superspeedways this year (68.9%) and the +150 (40%) available at DraftKings Sportsbook. Fords have just barely missed out in winning each of the superspeedway races this year except the spring Atlanta race, which they won easily. Brad Keselowski was surging in the summer Atlanta event before rain shortened it; Ryan Blaney was leading on the last lap at Talladega before getting turned by Bubba Wallace; and Keselowski and Chris Buescher were putting on a show in the Daytona 500 before the final few laps.

By buying Ford on the manufacturer market, we’re getting exposure to Ryan Blaney (7.7%), Joey Logano (7.7%), Brad Keselowski (7.7%), Chris Buescher (5.9%), Austin Cindric (4.4%) and Aric Almirola (4.4%), along with longshots like Michael McDowell (3.5%), Ryan Preece (2.8%) and Chase Briscoe (2.8%) — plus four other entrants — which gets us to around 50%. Controlling the 35.8% of the field who have led 68.9% of the laps at superspeedways this year at a price of only +150 (40%) is a fantastic deal.

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Best NASCAR Daytona Bet: Ford +150 for 0.75 Units at DraftKings

Can Austin Cindric Complete the Hail Mary?

No Ford driver needs a win more than Austin Cindric. The Team Penske driver finds himself as the team’s lone member on the outside looking in, and he is more points behind Bubba Wallace in the standings than he could mathematically make up in one race. With both RFK Racing cars locked into the playoffs, along with his Penske teammates, Joey Logano and Ryan Blaney, Cindric could be the beneficiary of some early race assistance from fellow Ford drivers — although we all know the gloves come off late in these races.

Cindric is no stranger to victory lane at Daytona. He famously won the 2022 Daytona 500 in his rookie season, in no small part because of the help he got from his teammates. Cindric also won the spring Xfinity Series race at Daytona in 2021. He even finished third here last summer and had a chance to win the race late, but the Richard Childress Racing teammates of Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick worked together to stay ahead of him. Cindric crashed out of this year’s Daytona 500 but not before leading 20 laps. He has led at least one lap in three of the four superspeedway races this season, which is part of why he is my favorite dark horse bet for Daytona.

Another important note for the summer Daytona race is a driver’s starting track position. Because this event is shorter than the Daytona 500 — and because superspeedway races can get chaotic behind the first two cars — minimizing your risk of a crash by staying ahead of the melee (or lagging very far behind it) is the optimal strategy, which rewards drivers who can qualify effectively. This year, Cindric qualified eighth (before the duels) for Daytona, second for Atlanta spring, 15th for Talladega and 10th for Atlanta summer. Look for him to start out front and stay there on Saturday — he deserves odds slightly shorter than the 25-1 (3.9%) at Caesars Sportsbook.

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Best NASCAR Daytona Bet: Austin Cindric +2500 for 0.05 Units at Caesars