UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa-Tybura promises some exciting action, especially in the main event, a five-round heavyweight fight between Tai Tuivasa and Marcin Tybura that is not expected to go the distance. Let’s get into our Tai Tuivasa-Marcin Tybura pick, odds and preview. Be sure to check out the rest of our UFC articles, including betting model’s top picks.
Tai Tuivasa-Marcin Tybura Pick, Odds and Preview
Tuivasa-Tybura Odds
Odds via DraftKings
Weight Class: Heavyweight
Tuivasa: -115 | Tybura: -105
Tuivasa -5.5: -105 | Tybura +5.5: -125
Over 1.5: -140 | Under 1.5: +110
Tuivasa-Tybura Pick & Preview
In the main event of the night, Tai Tuivasa (15-6) looks to get back on track against Marcin Tybura (24-8). Unfortunately for Tuivasa, he got somewhat exposed in his past three fights, so I’d be hard-pressed to bet him as a favorite against other ranked heavyweights, particularly those as well-conditioned and skilled as Tybura.
It’s no secret that Tuivasa has dynamite in his fists. If he connects on a shot, he could put out almost anyone on Earth. However, in his last three fights, the issue was actually connecting. In his last three fights, Tuivasa landed only 59 significant strikes, compared to the 226 significant strikes he absorbed. In his career, he absorbs a heavy 4.98 significant strikes per minute, defending only 43% of the time.
Even with Tuivasa’s power, opponents who can make it through an initial onslaught usually find success, as his gas tank doesn’t hold up in the later rounds. Out of the three fights Tuivasa went past the second round, he lost two of them, with the other coming as a 29-28 unanimous decision against an aging Andrei Arlovski. Overall, Tuivasa’s average fight time in his UFC career is just 6:45.
Tybura, however, is no stranger to longer fights. His average fight time over his 18 UFC fights totals 12:02, with six wins coming by decision. This bodes well in a five-round fight, as there is no indication Tuivasa can sustain any meaningful pressure over such a long period. With the line favoring the over 1.5 rounds, it seems odd to favor Tuivasa with his questionable gas tank.
A particular flaw in Tuivasa’s approach is his lack of grappling ability. In 13 UFC fights, he has yet to secure a successful takedown. He doesn’t make up for it much with his pressure on the feet. While 3.98 significant strikes landed per minute isn’t necessarily low, the fact that his opponents don’t have to fear the takedown at all makes his output concerning, especially as it diminishes in both impact and amount as the fight goes on.
Tybura isn’t known for his wrestling prowess in the octagon, but he still averages 1.39 takedowns per 15 minutes of fight time. As Tuivasa has a 54% takedown defense rate, I could see Tybura approach the fight with a more grappling-heavy approach, particularly in the earlier rounds when he can wear on Tuivasa and drain his stamina for the later rounds.
Tuivasa’s power definitely shouldn’t be overlooked, but without an early knockout, I don’t see a path to victory. I would consider playing Tybura all the way down to -150.
Best UFC Tuivasa-Tybura Bet & Pick: Tybura ML -105 at DraftKings
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